Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Four
I really like both Oakland and the Vikings this week. I'm in for five units early on each. All lines brought to you by Bodog.com, the best sports betting site around.
Yearly results: 8-8, 2-1 on Game of the Week Last week: 2-2, loss on GotW
Oakland -3 vs Dallas
This game is the Raiders' season. They are 0-3, but they played hard last week against the Eagles and took that game to the wire. More importantly, one thing I've learned in the past three weeks is that Dallas has serious, serious troubles in the secondary. I look for Oakland to work to establish the run with Lamont Jordan, but they're going to go up top several times for big scores. Moss and Porter both have career days, as does Collins. Game of the week by a landslide, even though there's a lot of public money on the Raiders already. Oakland 118, Dallas 98.
Minnesota +6 at Atlanta
This is a game of public perception, i think. Everyone I know loves Atlanta here, and once again I'm going the other way. Here's a laundry list of reasons: The Falcons allowed more than 500 yards passing their first two games, against Philly (understandable) and Seattle (!). Atlanta only settled down the pass defense last week against J.P. Losman, who was held to 75 yards passing - but he's terrible. Tice is on the hot seat. This is practically a must-win for him.
Atlanta's banged up secondary - I know DeAngelo Hall and Jason Webster practiced Wednesday - Friday but they're still not 100%. But even so, the Vikings a much better team talent-wise than they're playing so far. Last week's confidence booster against NO, they didn't look perfect by any stretch but with fresh confidence they may be able to rumble over a real team.
Atlanta's strong run game against Vikes weak run D. - ATL will be able to run the ball and will likely grind a lot of clock. Mewelde Moore is a much better RB than a lot of people (general public opinion) give him credit for. Especially on turf. Despite Falcons solid defense, I think Minn will be able to run due to the strong passing threat of Dante versus the banged up secondary.
Vikings free safety Darren Sharper being questionable doesn't hurt them nearly as bad as most people think, in my opinion. Chavous is a great player at strong safety, and the Vikings are looking at going to four linebackers using 3rd year LB Dontarrious Thomas (out of Auburn) who is extremely quick and will help dramatically against the run compared to having Sharper. Thats assuming OLB E.J. Henderson (probable) is healthy, otherwise Thomas will be playing for him. I'm also actually considering Erasmus James (stud 1st round pick from Wisconsin) probably starting at DE as a good thing - he's much quicker despite his lack of experience and I think he could step up and be an x-factor for the Vikes defense.
Public perception is on the side of the Falcons, i think the smart money is fading that public groundswell. People seem to have forgotten how good the Vikes should be with the last three games, and have overvalued the Falcons who have looked spotty at best in the last three. Not saying Minn wins necessarily - but I think there's a lot of value in taking the points. Falcons 24, Vikings 21.
Kansas City -1.5 vs Philly
KC is 17-3 at home against NFC opponents since 1995. McNabb is beat up, and the Chiefs are going to go super-agressive on defense at home with the raucous Arrowhead crowd behind them. Surtain will match up well against Owens, the difference for the Chiefs is going to be stopping Westbrook from having a huge day recieving out of the backfield. 31-14 Kansas City.
Baltimore -7 vs Jets
While the spread is pretty significant, I really look for Baltimore's defense to step up majorly for the first time all season, and put a big hurting on the Jets, who are starting their third string QB Brooks Bollinger (and what's worse, backing him up with Vinny Testaverdi). While Baltimore is starting 2nd stringer Anthony Wright at QB, he's got experience as a starter and obviously is going against a much weaker defense. 24-10 Baltimore.
Yearly results: 8-8, 2-1 on Game of the Week Last week: 2-2, loss on GotW
Oakland -3 vs Dallas
This game is the Raiders' season. They are 0-3, but they played hard last week against the Eagles and took that game to the wire. More importantly, one thing I've learned in the past three weeks is that Dallas has serious, serious troubles in the secondary. I look for Oakland to work to establish the run with Lamont Jordan, but they're going to go up top several times for big scores. Moss and Porter both have career days, as does Collins. Game of the week by a landslide, even though there's a lot of public money on the Raiders already. Oakland 118, Dallas 98.
Minnesota +6 at Atlanta
This is a game of public perception, i think. Everyone I know loves Atlanta here, and once again I'm going the other way. Here's a laundry list of reasons: The Falcons allowed more than 500 yards passing their first two games, against Philly (understandable) and Seattle (!). Atlanta only settled down the pass defense last week against J.P. Losman, who was held to 75 yards passing - but he's terrible. Tice is on the hot seat. This is practically a must-win for him.
Atlanta's banged up secondary - I know DeAngelo Hall and Jason Webster practiced Wednesday - Friday but they're still not 100%. But even so, the Vikings a much better team talent-wise than they're playing so far. Last week's confidence booster against NO, they didn't look perfect by any stretch but with fresh confidence they may be able to rumble over a real team.
Atlanta's strong run game against Vikes weak run D. - ATL will be able to run the ball and will likely grind a lot of clock. Mewelde Moore is a much better RB than a lot of people (general public opinion) give him credit for. Especially on turf. Despite Falcons solid defense, I think Minn will be able to run due to the strong passing threat of Dante versus the banged up secondary.
Vikings free safety Darren Sharper being questionable doesn't hurt them nearly as bad as most people think, in my opinion. Chavous is a great player at strong safety, and the Vikings are looking at going to four linebackers using 3rd year LB Dontarrious Thomas (out of Auburn) who is extremely quick and will help dramatically against the run compared to having Sharper. Thats assuming OLB E.J. Henderson (probable) is healthy, otherwise Thomas will be playing for him. I'm also actually considering Erasmus James (stud 1st round pick from Wisconsin) probably starting at DE as a good thing - he's much quicker despite his lack of experience and I think he could step up and be an x-factor for the Vikes defense.
Public perception is on the side of the Falcons, i think the smart money is fading that public groundswell. People seem to have forgotten how good the Vikes should be with the last three games, and have overvalued the Falcons who have looked spotty at best in the last three. Not saying Minn wins necessarily - but I think there's a lot of value in taking the points. Falcons 24, Vikings 21.
Kansas City -1.5 vs Philly
KC is 17-3 at home against NFC opponents since 1995. McNabb is beat up, and the Chiefs are going to go super-agressive on defense at home with the raucous Arrowhead crowd behind them. Surtain will match up well against Owens, the difference for the Chiefs is going to be stopping Westbrook from having a huge day recieving out of the backfield. 31-14 Kansas City.
Baltimore -7 vs Jets
While the spread is pretty significant, I really look for Baltimore's defense to step up majorly for the first time all season, and put a big hurting on the Jets, who are starting their third string QB Brooks Bollinger (and what's worse, backing him up with Vinny Testaverdi). While Baltimore is starting 2nd stringer Anthony Wright at QB, he's got experience as a starter and obviously is going against a much weaker defense. 24-10 Baltimore.
posted by Performify at 3:00 PM
4 Comments:
I gots a prediction. Sooted Connectors 135, Performify Pigskins 73.
After the way I got worked over last week, i'm really looking forward to this week's matchup. You're going down :)
I think you missed it on the Falcons. I predict a bruising for the Vikes. Good luck in blogger tourney.
Well, pick of the week came through again so i'm 3-1 there. That's good.
Obviously, i did miss on the Falcons. The Vikings sure looked terrible - I thought I'd locked it when Vick went down for the game in the first half, but the Vikings really just couldn't score at all.
Chiefs game i think I was on target, considering KC was up 24-3 at one point. But several turnovers and a massive momentum swing, and that ends up a loss.
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