Performify's Pigskin Picks: Wild Orange Roses
I've started preliminary analysis on the NFL wildcard games, and my system doesn't like much at all at the given lines. But I have found a four-team teaser that combines tonight's Orange Bowl, tomorrow's Rose Bowl, and two games from the NFL wildcard round this weekend. So without further ado:
Florida State +17I posted my wrapup results for the NFL regular season in a comment on my last picks post but I'll repost here for posterity:
Texas +14
Patriots -1
Steelers +4
2.5 units to win 5 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as postedAs in years past, the graduated betting scheme (valuing certain games more strongly than others, instead of just placing a single unit on all 68 games selected) has resulted in a positive winning season. Game of the Week was a solid 58.8% winner. Most of these results were skewed by my selecting only a single game and two teasers in week 17, but that's not unusual as my system takes in to account numerous factors including "need to win" and thus wants to stay far away from games that have little or no consequence.
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
posted by Performify at 6:01 PM
2 Comments:
For those looking for significant details on these picks, sorry. No real details, just posting the pick.
With all the publicity I've seen on USC and all the public perception on that side, I can't believe that Texas +14 doesn't have significant value. I don't believe there's a significant value to either side at -7 but I believe +14 is valuable enough to warrant inclusion.
Teasing the Pats and Steelers independantly will likely be my only pure NFL plays this weekend, as early indications from my system are no serious value from any of the lines. - I really like crossing the 7 and 3 on the Pats and crossing both -3 and +3 on the Steelers. My system predicts the Pats to win but not to cover 8 with any high degree of certainty, and also predicts the Steelers game to be +/- 3 so I'm happy there.
Hey man! Cool, I've finally found a KC poker blogger! I'm going through some of your archives right now...good stuff. We'll have to chat sometime. See you around...
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