UFC 57: full card predictions
I've handicapped every fight on tomorrow's UFC card. Since this is a bit off topic for my poker blog, rather than take over the front page, I'm going to put the content in the comments, so click through for the comments if you're interested in reading them. You can also click over to my UFC 57 thread on Two + Two where they're probably easier to read.
posted by Performify at 5:30 PM
3 Comments:
First off, let me say that if you'd locked Randy Couture at a +201 underdog as i first recommended, you could now profitably arbitrage for a $74.43 profit regardless of outcome (by placing $930.57 to win $574.43 on Chuck at the current line of Chuck -162, to arbitrage against your earlier placed $500 to win $1005 on Randy). I'm not chosing to arbitrage, as i'm more happy riding Randy at 2:1, but i can't blame you if you go for the guaranteed money.
That being said, here's my prediction and at least a slight blurb on all the fighters:
I'm not 100% in which order the fights fire off, but this should be close. Picks in bold:
33 Jeff Monson -244
34 Brandon Lee Hinkle +224
"Iron Lion" Hinkle last fought in UFC 55: Fury (10/7/05) where he beat the crap out of Sean Gannon in the first round. Hinkle is a division II wrestling champion and is a ground and pound fighter. "Snowman" Monson fought in the UFC three times previously, winning his debut in september 2000, then losing a decision to Chuck Liddell in december 2000, and then lost to Ricco Rodriguez in 2002 and left the UFC. However, since leaving the UFC, Monson joined American Top Team (ATT), a top MMA fight teams which gives him a signficant training edge. Monson is also coming in to the fight riding 13 consecutive wins and a 2005 championship at the prestigious Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC) world grappling tournament. Monson should have a pretty serious edge in this fight.
35 Alessio Sakara -382
36 Elvis Sinosic +342
Sinosic is the guy who got smacked around by Ultimate Fighter Forrest Griffin in UFC 55: Fury (10/7/05). Sinosic managed to beat highly regarded Miletich Martial Arts fighter Jeremy Horn in his 2001 UFC debut, but has lost his four subsequent UFC fights. Sakara is a big striker with ground skills who also has a 6-1 professional boxing record. Sinosic holds Black Belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Shoot fighting, TaeKwonDo & KaiShin. Usually i'd be on the underdog here, as I think the BJJ background gives Sinosic the opportunity to win this fight more often than the odds indicate, but I'm afriad Sakara takes this one down too easily based on how we've seen Sinosic get smacked around in his last fights.
37 Mike Whitehead +121
38 Kieth Jardine -131
Whitehead got beaten pretty badly by Rashad Evans in TUF 2. However Whitehead reportedly had a massive bacterial infection during the fight, which helps to explain why he looked so bad if that's the case. Whitehead has also cut significant weight, dropping from 250 to 205 to fight at light heavyweight (both fighters are dropping down to light heavyweight, FYI). Whitehead is an excellent fighter from the video i've seen online of his earlier fights, and the only reason he's an underdog in this fight is people discredited him after the televised loss to Rashad Evans. Whitehead in the upset.
25 Renato "Babalu" Sobral -344
26 Mike Van Arsdale +314
Sobral is an experienced BBJ expert, training under Carlos Gracie Jr. Sobral is 30 and has 31 fights (26-5-0). Arsdale is 40 and has only 13 fights (10-2-1). Sobral wins this one easily, biggest mismatch on the card.
27 Barndon Vera -237
28 Justin Eilers +217
Vera is an exceedingly hard hitter who is undefeated in MMA combat. Eilers has battled injuries and is on a two-fight losing streak (however the losses were to good fighters, Andrei Arlovski and Paul Buentello). Eilers is a good striker, but he's horrible on the ground, and Vera is too complete a package here in my opinion.
29 Paul Buentello -256
30 Gilbert Aldano +236
Aldano is 5-0. He has fought three minutes and 43 seconds in those five fights. Combined.
Let that sink in. And then read this quote from Aldano:
“But once you get in the cage and once I see him, it’s just a fight. It’s like I walked out of a bar and Paul just grabbed my wife’s butt, and we’re gonna fight."
Buentello is coming off a loss against UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski last October. Aldano may not win his UFC debut, but with his swarming power he's not a +236 underdog to lose against a guy who's 32 years old and on the downslide, either.
31 Nick Diaz -155
32 Joe Riggs +145
Riggs is an explosive striker and a BJJ blue belt, and is coming off a loss to Matt Hughes in November. Diaz is a ju-jitsu fighter himself, and is coming off the close decision loss to Diego Sanchez in TUF2 from November. This should be the closest fight of the night, and I don't recommend betting it unless you really are an action junkie, but my formal pick will be Riggs here.
23 Frank Mir -268
24 Marcio Cruz +248
Mir was one of the most promising UFC newcommers before suffering a huge setback with a bad motorcycle accident in late 2004. He's a tremendous submission fighter, but faces an aggressive BJJ expert in Cruz. Cruz is a six time world champion of jiu-Jitsu, 8 time pancration champion of jiu-jitsu, Abu Dhabil 2000 champion (Over 99KG) and is the only Brazillian to win this category. Mir is a sentimental favorite and will have the crowd behind him, but I don't believe he's a 2.5:1 favorite coming off the injury. I'm taking Cruz here.
21 Chuck Liddell -162
22 Randy Couture +152
Full writeup previously posted in this thread. I'm still a believer in Randy here, and hopefully you were able to secure much higher odds per my previous posting.
Best of luck to everyone.
I've actually reversed my position on Buentello / Aldano, but since I can't edit a comment, i'm just going to repost:
29 Paul Buentello -256
30 Gilbert Aldano +236
Aldano is 5-0. He has fought three minutes and 43 seconds in those five fights. Combined. Let that sink in. And i love this quote from Aldano:
“But once you get in the cage and once I see him, it’s just a fight. It’s like I walked out of a bar and Paul just grabbed my wife’s butt, and we’re gonna fight."
Buentello is coming off a loss against UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski last October. But that being said, Buentello has significant UFC experience and i believe will win this fight. Click through to this thread for more on this fight, from two 2p2 UFC experts whose opinion i respect enough to have changed my pick on this fight.
Results: finished 7-2 on the entire card.
A very, very profitable night.
won every one except for Randy/Chuck (main event) and Whitehead did not upset Jardine as predicted. for some reason that fight wasn't included in the PPV which was disappointing.
Per my Randy/Chuck thread, i felt the value was in the early disparity in the line at 2:1 and the line move to near even before fight time proved that. Hopefully people were able to arbitrage for a guaranteed profit, or if not rest assured Randy 2:1 was a +EV bet.
33 Jeff Monson -244 - WINNER
34 Brandon Lee Hinkle +224
35 Alessio Sakara -382 - WINNER
36 Elvis Sinosic +342
37 Mike Whitehead +121 - LOSE bet
38 Kieth Jardine -131 - winner
25 Renato "Babalu" Sobral -344 - WINNER
26 Mike Van Arsdale +314
27 Barndon Vera -237 - WINNER
28 Justin Eilers +217
29 Paul Buentello -256 - WINNER
30 Gilbert Aldano +236
31 Nick Diaz -155
32 Joe Riggs +145 - WINNER
23 Frank Mir -268
24 Marcio Cruz +248 - WINNER
21 Chuck Liddell -162 -Winner
22 Randy Couture +152 - LOSE bet
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