Idol week 3
See the previous post in this series if you're not up to speed.
With the idea of setting up a short-term arbitrage this week, I'm placing a half unit preimptively on Lisa +309 to be eliminated this week.
Lisa Tucker +309 risking $50 to win $154
I expect Lisa's line is going to fall tonight post-performances and locking in at +309 may setup an immediate arbitrage opportunity.
Of course one could setup an immediate arbitrage based on the two lines now: placing $130 on Bucky to win at -185 would result in a ~$25 profit regardless of which of the two gets kicked.
however I'm going to wait for the performances to make a call. I think its strongly possible that Lisa's performance will be subpar enough (and whatever fanbase Bucky has will rally if he performs adequately) to keep him alive - whereas Lisa Tucker has already proven she's not going to rally by being in the bottom three for two weeks running.
If Bucky has a terrible performance (and its clear he's headed home) this preliminary move will cost us +EV however we will always be able to hedge the half-unit on Lisa Tucker +309 against whatever line Bucky ends up as as long as its not worse than -309 (obviously).
With the idea of setting up a short-term arbitrage this week, I'm placing a half unit preimptively on Lisa +309 to be eliminated this week.
Lisa Tucker +309 risking $50 to win $154
I expect Lisa's line is going to fall tonight post-performances and locking in at +309 may setup an immediate arbitrage opportunity.
Of course one could setup an immediate arbitrage based on the two lines now: placing $130 on Bucky to win at -185 would result in a ~$25 profit regardless of which of the two gets kicked.
however I'm going to wait for the performances to make a call. I think its strongly possible that Lisa's performance will be subpar enough (and whatever fanbase Bucky has will rally if he performs adequately) to keep him alive - whereas Lisa Tucker has already proven she's not going to rally by being in the bottom three for two weeks running.
If Bucky has a terrible performance (and its clear he's headed home) this preliminary move will cost us +EV however we will always be able to hedge the half-unit on Lisa Tucker +309 against whatever line Bucky ends up as as long as its not worse than -309 (obviously).
posted by Performify at 5:01 PM
3 Comments:
After the performance this week, I'm exceedingly happy with my decision to lock in the half unit on Lisa Tucker +309 prior to the show.
As expected, Lisa has fallen post-show to +164. Bucky has fallen to -113, which would allow a hedge of $100 to win $88.50 on Bucky allowing for a $38.50 profit on Bucky's departure and a $54 profit on Lisa's departure.
I have not yet elected to execute this arbitrage, but wanted to post it in case someone was following the scenario and wanted to lock in a strongly secure profit.
Kellie and Taylor's stock both dropped this week. Elliots rose from last week, nearer to where I had originally valued him. Chris' dropped a little, Kat's rose.
I'd handicap the remaining contestants chances to make the final two as follows, based on cumulative and future expected performances, including week three's performances:
Kat: 95%
Chris: 90%
Elliot: 5%
Taylor: 5%
Mandisa: .01%
Ace: .01%
Paris: .0001%
Kellie: 0%*
Lisa: 0%*
Bucky: 0%*
* = less than one-in-a-million
I pretty firmly beleive we've established the strong contenders for top four at this time. Ace and Mandisa should round out the top six, with Paris having an outside chance.
As previously posted, I strongly expect a bottom three this week of Bucky, Lisa Tucker, and Kellie Pickler.
Bottom three were Lisa Tucker, Ace Young, and in a very big surprise Katherine McPhee.
Lisa Tucker was elminated.
Ace was sat down first, but like most weeks Ryan Seacrest did NOT say that he had the higher votes so all we know for sure is that Ace and Katherine were #9 and #8 in votes together.
Lisa Tucker +309 risking $50 to win $154
Results on the year: 2-1 on eliminations, +1.53 units
Preliminary market thoughts:
I actually love seeing Katherine in the bottom three, as hopefully it will add value to her line. I'm not changing my prediction for a Katherine and Chris final two in the slightest - just hoping we'll hit more value in the futures line.
Bucky's fans clearly rallied this week to keep him around. I don't expect that to happen next week baring a great performance from him and/or significantly subpar performances from the rest of the field.
Preliminary pick for bottom three next week: Ace, Bucky, and Paris, with Kellie Pickler close behind.
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