Saturday, March 11, 2006

If you're going to bubble...

...bubble on the money of your biggest tournament of the night, and do it trying to resteal from quad aces.

After deriding myself for the lack of poker this week, I decided I'd play a little yesterday and today. Last night I ITM'd 2/2 HORSE SNGs on Full Tilt - I just love the new HORSE SNGs - and then tonight I vowed to enter a couple MTTs. After eating dinner and watching Jarhead with the roommate, I sat down and found my way in to a Full Tilt $10+1 MTT, a Party $40+4 MTT, and a Full Tilt $69+6 $16k Guaranteed.

I didn't really get anywhere in the $10+1, and I cracked out of the $40+4 on a coinflip hand about midway through - I was about average and called a preflop raise from the big blind with suited connectors. My 6d7d hit a fourflush + a gutshot draw on the [9d Ts 3d] flop and I checked intending to check-raise but my opponent overbet all-in when I checked to him. I thought about it and called all-in, and found myself nearly a 2-1 favorite to his unimproved AKo (I had eighteen outs, with nine remaining diamonds, three remaining sixes, three remaining sevens, and three remaining eights for the straight (excluding the eight of diamonds, which we already counted in the flush outs). However his AK held up unimproved and I was bounced.

However, in the Full Tilt $69+6 I made a spectacular run before going down in flames. We had 211 entrants for a $14,599 prize pool (almost $4k for first). I was top ten in chips at the first break, and hung no worse than top twenty in chips the rest of the way out. The top 27 paid, and I was sitting around 10-11 M with about 35 remaining on the bubble. I ended up losing about 1/4th of my chips on two hands in the same orbit when I was forced to decisions with mediocre holdings and elected to fold.

As an example, take this hand: Blinds are 200/400 with a 50 ante. A good, aggressive player who is in the top five in chips min-raises my big blind from MP. I call the 400 with 95o (getting better than 4:1 I'm calling there with any two). The flop comes 966 with two hearts. I check, looking to check-raise the flop (and fold to a push) however my opponent checks behind. The turn is an offsuit eight, and I lead the turn for about 2/3 the pot, or T1500. I've got about T6k behind. My opponent quickly calls. The river is an offsuit jack. I check, my opponent fires a half pot bet of ~T2000. I let my time expire, still trying to decide between a call and a fold.

So after that last hand, i'm down to T6k and we're down to 30 players remaining. Again, the top 27 pay, so we're very near the bubble. Two hands later, this same good aggressive big-stack makes a standard 3x BB raise on my big blind. He's gone after my blind every time its been folded to him in MP or later for the last four orbits, and I decide I'm primed for a resteal. I've got good fold equity if I push unless he's got a super-premium hand, and my K4o should have two live cards in the unfortunate event I'm called (and possibly even an overcard with the king). However, my read is off and villian has Aces. The flop brings a third ace, so the four on the turn is just to spite me in to briefly thinking I've got outs before I realize he hit that ace on the flop for a set. Then the fourth ace on the river to give him Quadzilla just adds insult to injury, and I bounce from my biggest tournament of the night right on the bubble after making a couple marginal plays.

I know its always my MTT strategy to play for the final table and not just to sneak in to the money, but I really feel like I made some marginal plays at the wrong time and cost myself some cash tonight. I'm going to go through a full hand history review, and if I find any more semi-interesting hands I'll post them in the comments.

In slightly better news I did break my OOTM SNG streak on Party, finishing second in my first Sit-N-Go of the night. I went on to 50% ITM and 37% ROI out of the SNGs I played in the background while I was finishing up the Full Tilt tournament, so it wasn't a terrible night overall.

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