Performify's UFC 59 picks
This weekend brings UFC 59: Reality Check. Per usual, we're rolling a poker game beforehand and then PPV'ing the fight. As usual, if you're going to be in the KC area and want an invite, drop me a line.
As usual, full card predictions. This time, Dana White was nice enough to notify us which fights would be guaranteed to be televised and which were pre-fight floaters (fights that aren't shown live, which occur before the broadcast starts and are only televised if time permits) so I've separated the writeup accordingly.
Prior UFC results: 12-5 record last two UFCs. 5-3 on UFC 58, 7-2 on UFC 57. 3-6 with -3.1 units on the past Ultimate Fight Night 4. Click each for more detailed record.
Televised fights:
Jeff Monson Vs. Marcio Cruz
Jeff Monson -212
Marcio Cruz +192
This fight is very much a grudge match, although a lot of people don't know it. Both fighters have an extreme dislike of each other from their Abu Dhabi days. Jeff "The Snowman" Monson we last saw in UFC 57, where he defeated Brandon Lee Hinkle in the first round - those following my picks, we were on Monson there for another nice payday. Monson is a big, strong fighter with American Top Team with a 20-5 MMA record, a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and is a two-time Abu Dhabi subission fighting world champion.
Cruz you may also remember - Cruz fights and trains with the Gracie Barra Combat Team (Renato "Babalu" Sobral). Cruz is a jiu-jitsu powerhouse: a six-time world champion of jiu-Jitsu, an eight-time pancration champion of jiu-jitsu, was the Abu Dhabi 2003 champion (Over 99KG) and was the only Brazillian to win this category. Cruz is 2-0 in MMA combat, with wins over Keigo Kunihara in UFC 55 (10/05) and most recently you probably remember Cruz making us money with the significant underdog upset of Frank Mir by TKO in the first round at UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3.
But more important than his MMA record, lets go back to that Abu Dhabi record - in 2003, when Cruz ran through an impressive field to win the Submission Wrestling World Championship, in the quarter finals Cruz faced a decorated MMA vetran by the name of.... Jeff Monson. And defeated him on his way to the title. However, Monson is riding a 15-fight win streak including winning the 2005 Abu Dhabi championship There's no question Monson should be favored here, but Cruz is very much the live underdog and is my prediction to win the fight outright. Cruz has a four inch height advantage and a significant reach advantage, which should help on the feet. And when it goes to the ground, which it will, Cruz has a significant advantage. Cruz by submission (rear naked choke, opportunity created from strikes) in the third round.
Nick Diaz Vs. Sean Sherk
Sean Sherk -156
Nick Diaz +146
Diaz is a decent fighter but has faltered lately, losing three of his last five fights. Diaz is 11-5 in MMA and trains with the Cesar Gracie team, but is coming off two straight losses (to Joe Riggs at UFC 57, and Diego Sanchez in the Ultimate fighter 2 finale). Sherk has an impressive 29-2-1 record, and despite his strong wrestling background is well rounded in muay thai, jeet kune do, and BJJ. Sherk has never suffered back to back losses, and he's going to be too much for Diaz here. Sherk by unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz Vs. Forrest Griffin
Tito Ortiz -322
Forrest Griffin +292
There are a lot of people who expect Ortiz to walk all over Griffin. Simply put, I'm one of them. Ortiz is a UFC vetran with an impressive pedigree, well-rounded skills, and superb intelligence and determination. Griffin is well known as the TUF winner and has been highly regarded since his big fight with Stephan Bonnar. However, as we've seen recently in Ultimate Fight Night 4, stealing a win from a mediocre Keith Jardine, Stephan Bonnar isn't that impressive of a fighter - Bonnar and Griffin put on a great show, because they're both pretty equally matched. Griffin isn't anywhere near Tito's league. Tito rolls him quickly, then smacks around Ken Shamrock at the end of TUF:3, and then sets himself up for an eventual Liddell vs Ortiz 2. Ortiz by TKO (ground + pound) in the second round.
Andrei Arlovski Vs. Tim Sylvia
Andrei Arlovski -400
Tim Sylvia +360
Silvia is a hard hitter, no question - he's 20-3 in MMA and trains with the superb Miletich Fighting systems. Miletich is going to have Sylvia well prepared for this fight, and he's got a puncher's chance at an upset here. But Arlovski is just way too powerful for this to go any direction. Arlovski is a samba expert, and has wins in his last six apperances, in UFC 40, 44, 47, 51, 53, and 55. Only one of those fights, UFC 47 vs Wesley Correira has gone past the first round - and that fight ended 1:15 in to the second. First round TKO, so hopefully we get to see an undercard fight or two.
Possibly non-televised fights:
David Terrell Vs. Scott Smith
David Terrell -227
Scott Smith +207
Scott Smith is a well rounded fighter, trained in uay Thai and Brazillian jiu-jitsu, with a 9-1 professional record. Terrell is a little bit of an enigma: he's a very highly regardled BJJ black belt under Cesar Gracie, but has a professional record of only 5-2. Terrell jumped on to the scene with a 24-second KO of Matt Lindland in his UFC debut (UFC 49 in August 2004) but then lost in big upset to Evan Tanner at UFC 51 (2/05) for the then vacant UFC middleweight belt. Terrell was overweight for the fight and he won't make that mistake again here. Smith is definately a live underdog here, he's a rising star, but Terrell has something significant to prove here. They've both got great standup, fast hands, and incredible punching power for 185. But Terrell has a significant edge on the ground, and assuming he can keep from getting mounted and pounded, he'll take this fight and put his career back on track. Terrell by submission (choke, probably a triangle) in the second round.
Karo Parisyan Vs. Nick Thompson
Karo Parisyan -263
Nick Thompson +243
Thompson was supposed to be fighting Joe Riggs in this match, however with Riggs bowing to injury the infamous Karo Parisyan steps in. Parisyan is a Pan American judo silver medalist and six-time Judo Junior National Champion, currently ranked No. 3 in the world at 178 pounds. Parisyan's last loss was to Georges St. Pierre in UFC 46 (1/04) - since then he has four decision wins over Shonie Carter (WEC 10), Nick Diaz (UFC 49), Chris Lytle (UFC 51) and Matt Serra (UFC 53 in 6/2005). Thompsons's last loss was 6/2005, but since then he's torn off eight victories in a row, including a win over Keith Wisniewski at UFC 56: Full Force. Six of Thompson's eight recent victories have come by KO or by submission. That's right, Nick "The Goat" Thompson has fought (and won) eight times in the past ten months, in the same amount of time that Parisyan has been idle from MMA combat. Thompson is wrestler from the University of Wisconsin who has trained with both the Freestyle Fighting Academy (Derrick Noble, Nick Agallar) and now with minnesota Martial Arts (Nate Homme, Sean Sherk). In total Thompson fought 15 times in 2005, with a 12-3 record including (as mentioned) winning his last eight in a row. Parisyan is a big MMA name, and I think this line is off quite a bit - I think the fight is closer to a 60/40 favorite than a 70/30, giving us quite a bit of EV here on the underdog. Nick Thompson in the upset, TKO in the second round.
Jason Lambert Vs. Terry Martin
13 Jason Lambert -219
14 Terry Martin +199
Those who aren't familiar with the UFC but follow my picks might remember Lambert - he made us money at UFC 58: USA vs Canada, where in his UFC debut he defeated Rob MacDonald with a first round kimura. Lambert is is a kickboxer and wrestler from the North County Fight Club. Terry you might remember as being the victim of a flying knee from James Irvin in the opening seconds of the second round, in their UFC 54 matchup. And while most people will remember that flying knee, they might overlook the fact that Martin pretty much dominated the first round before getting the quick KO. This will be an absolute brawl - both guys will go at each other standing up and will only take the fight to the ground as a last resort. This fight is closer than the odds indicate - I'm taking Martin in the upset.
Thiago Alves Vs. Derrick Noble
Thiago Alves -300
Derrick Noble +270
Thiago Alves is a Brazilian Muay Thai Champion who also holds a Purple Belt in BJJ and a professional MMA record of 7-2 with another . we've most recently seen him at UFC 56, KO'ing Ansar Chalangov in the first round. Noble is primarily a striker, with some good ground game to match, and a deeper 15-6-1 professional MMA record.. The two previously fought in December of 2003 in the Absolute Fighting Championships (AFC #6), where Noble won with a rear naked choke when Alves gave up his back trying to shield from strikes by Noble. Since their meeting in ’03, Alves is 4-1 and Noble is 5-2-1. This is a tough fight to call, should be very close, but I'll stick with a small bet on Alves.
Evan Tanner Vs. Justin Levens
Evan Tanner -305
Justin Levens +275
This fight was originally supposed to be Tanner vs Jeremy Horn, which I was really anticipating. However Horn got injured int training, and Levens stepped in. Evan Tanner is a former member of Team Quest (Randy Couture, etc). Tanner has a pretty impressive 31-6 record, but he's been TKO'd from his last two fights, UFC 53 ( by Rich Franklin and in Ultimate Fight Night 2 by David Loiseau. Tanner has impressive wins over David Terrell (UFC 51, 02/05) Robbie Lawler in UFC 50, 10/04), Phil Baroni (UFCs 45 and 48), and Elvis Sinosic (UFC 38). Justin Levens is a Vale Tudo fighter who trains with Marco Ruas and holds a 7-1 MMA record. Dana White is really going to want to groom Tanner to make another run at the title, as Franklin faces a lack of quality opponents in the middleweight division, and Levens is a good opponent for that - he's a dangerous striker, but his jiu-jitsu still needs a lot of work. They'll throw a little standing up for a while, but Tanner will take this to the ground and then finish with GnP or an armlock. Levens is a decent, dangerous fighter, but Evan Tanner should win this fight and move back on track towards another shot at Rich Franklin down the line.
Final recommendationsTito Ortiz -323 : 3.23 units to win 1 unit *
Sean Sherk -156 : 1.56 units to win 1 unit
Marcio Cruz +192 : 1 unit to win 1.92 units *
David Terrell -227 : 2.27 units to win 1 unit
Nick Thomspon +234 : 1 unit to win 2.34 units *
Terry Martin +178 : 1 unit to win 1.78 units
thiago Alves -306 : 1.53 units to win .5 units
Evan Tanner -305 : 1.525 units to win .5 unit
Andrei Arlovski -400 : 8 units to win 2 units
* = recommended late place, to take advantage of the line moving our direction
As usual, full card predictions. This time, Dana White was nice enough to notify us which fights would be guaranteed to be televised and which were pre-fight floaters (fights that aren't shown live, which occur before the broadcast starts and are only televised if time permits) so I've separated the writeup accordingly.
Prior UFC results: 12-5 record last two UFCs. 5-3 on UFC 58, 7-2 on UFC 57. 3-6 with -3.1 units on the past Ultimate Fight Night 4. Click each for more detailed record.
Televised fights:
Jeff Monson Vs. Marcio Cruz
Jeff Monson -212
Marcio Cruz +192
This fight is very much a grudge match, although a lot of people don't know it. Both fighters have an extreme dislike of each other from their Abu Dhabi days. Jeff "The Snowman" Monson we last saw in UFC 57, where he defeated Brandon Lee Hinkle in the first round - those following my picks, we were on Monson there for another nice payday. Monson is a big, strong fighter with American Top Team with a 20-5 MMA record, a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and is a two-time Abu Dhabi subission fighting world champion.
Cruz you may also remember - Cruz fights and trains with the Gracie Barra Combat Team (Renato "Babalu" Sobral). Cruz is a jiu-jitsu powerhouse: a six-time world champion of jiu-Jitsu, an eight-time pancration champion of jiu-jitsu, was the Abu Dhabi 2003 champion (Over 99KG) and was the only Brazillian to win this category. Cruz is 2-0 in MMA combat, with wins over Keigo Kunihara in UFC 55 (10/05) and most recently you probably remember Cruz making us money with the significant underdog upset of Frank Mir by TKO in the first round at UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3.
But more important than his MMA record, lets go back to that Abu Dhabi record - in 2003, when Cruz ran through an impressive field to win the Submission Wrestling World Championship, in the quarter finals Cruz faced a decorated MMA vetran by the name of.... Jeff Monson. And defeated him on his way to the title. However, Monson is riding a 15-fight win streak including winning the 2005 Abu Dhabi championship There's no question Monson should be favored here, but Cruz is very much the live underdog and is my prediction to win the fight outright. Cruz has a four inch height advantage and a significant reach advantage, which should help on the feet. And when it goes to the ground, which it will, Cruz has a significant advantage. Cruz by submission (rear naked choke, opportunity created from strikes) in the third round.
Nick Diaz Vs. Sean Sherk
Sean Sherk -156
Nick Diaz +146
Diaz is a decent fighter but has faltered lately, losing three of his last five fights. Diaz is 11-5 in MMA and trains with the Cesar Gracie team, but is coming off two straight losses (to Joe Riggs at UFC 57, and Diego Sanchez in the Ultimate fighter 2 finale). Sherk has an impressive 29-2-1 record, and despite his strong wrestling background is well rounded in muay thai, jeet kune do, and BJJ. Sherk has never suffered back to back losses, and he's going to be too much for Diaz here. Sherk by unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz Vs. Forrest Griffin
Tito Ortiz -322
Forrest Griffin +292
There are a lot of people who expect Ortiz to walk all over Griffin. Simply put, I'm one of them. Ortiz is a UFC vetran with an impressive pedigree, well-rounded skills, and superb intelligence and determination. Griffin is well known as the TUF winner and has been highly regarded since his big fight with Stephan Bonnar. However, as we've seen recently in Ultimate Fight Night 4, stealing a win from a mediocre Keith Jardine, Stephan Bonnar isn't that impressive of a fighter - Bonnar and Griffin put on a great show, because they're both pretty equally matched. Griffin isn't anywhere near Tito's league. Tito rolls him quickly, then smacks around Ken Shamrock at the end of TUF:3, and then sets himself up for an eventual Liddell vs Ortiz 2. Ortiz by TKO (ground + pound) in the second round.
Andrei Arlovski Vs. Tim Sylvia
Andrei Arlovski -400
Tim Sylvia +360
Silvia is a hard hitter, no question - he's 20-3 in MMA and trains with the superb Miletich Fighting systems. Miletich is going to have Sylvia well prepared for this fight, and he's got a puncher's chance at an upset here. But Arlovski is just way too powerful for this to go any direction. Arlovski is a samba expert, and has wins in his last six apperances, in UFC 40, 44, 47, 51, 53, and 55. Only one of those fights, UFC 47 vs Wesley Correira has gone past the first round - and that fight ended 1:15 in to the second. First round TKO, so hopefully we get to see an undercard fight or two.
Possibly non-televised fights:
David Terrell Vs. Scott Smith
David Terrell -227
Scott Smith +207
Scott Smith is a well rounded fighter, trained in uay Thai and Brazillian jiu-jitsu, with a 9-1 professional record. Terrell is a little bit of an enigma: he's a very highly regardled BJJ black belt under Cesar Gracie, but has a professional record of only 5-2. Terrell jumped on to the scene with a 24-second KO of Matt Lindland in his UFC debut (UFC 49 in August 2004) but then lost in big upset to Evan Tanner at UFC 51 (2/05) for the then vacant UFC middleweight belt. Terrell was overweight for the fight and he won't make that mistake again here. Smith is definately a live underdog here, he's a rising star, but Terrell has something significant to prove here. They've both got great standup, fast hands, and incredible punching power for 185. But Terrell has a significant edge on the ground, and assuming he can keep from getting mounted and pounded, he'll take this fight and put his career back on track. Terrell by submission (choke, probably a triangle) in the second round.
Karo Parisyan Vs. Nick Thompson
Karo Parisyan -263
Nick Thompson +243
Thompson was supposed to be fighting Joe Riggs in this match, however with Riggs bowing to injury the infamous Karo Parisyan steps in. Parisyan is a Pan American judo silver medalist and six-time Judo Junior National Champion, currently ranked No. 3 in the world at 178 pounds. Parisyan's last loss was to Georges St. Pierre in UFC 46 (1/04) - since then he has four decision wins over Shonie Carter (WEC 10), Nick Diaz (UFC 49), Chris Lytle (UFC 51) and Matt Serra (UFC 53 in 6/2005). Thompsons's last loss was 6/2005, but since then he's torn off eight victories in a row, including a win over Keith Wisniewski at UFC 56: Full Force. Six of Thompson's eight recent victories have come by KO or by submission. That's right, Nick "The Goat" Thompson has fought (and won) eight times in the past ten months, in the same amount of time that Parisyan has been idle from MMA combat. Thompson is wrestler from the University of Wisconsin who has trained with both the Freestyle Fighting Academy (Derrick Noble, Nick Agallar) and now with minnesota Martial Arts (Nate Homme, Sean Sherk). In total Thompson fought 15 times in 2005, with a 12-3 record including (as mentioned) winning his last eight in a row. Parisyan is a big MMA name, and I think this line is off quite a bit - I think the fight is closer to a 60/40 favorite than a 70/30, giving us quite a bit of EV here on the underdog. Nick Thompson in the upset, TKO in the second round.
Jason Lambert Vs. Terry Martin
13 Jason Lambert -219
14 Terry Martin +199
Those who aren't familiar with the UFC but follow my picks might remember Lambert - he made us money at UFC 58: USA vs Canada, where in his UFC debut he defeated Rob MacDonald with a first round kimura. Lambert is is a kickboxer and wrestler from the North County Fight Club. Terry you might remember as being the victim of a flying knee from James Irvin in the opening seconds of the second round, in their UFC 54 matchup. And while most people will remember that flying knee, they might overlook the fact that Martin pretty much dominated the first round before getting the quick KO. This will be an absolute brawl - both guys will go at each other standing up and will only take the fight to the ground as a last resort. This fight is closer than the odds indicate - I'm taking Martin in the upset.
Thiago Alves Vs. Derrick Noble
Thiago Alves -300
Derrick Noble +270
Thiago Alves is a Brazilian Muay Thai Champion who also holds a Purple Belt in BJJ and a professional MMA record of 7-2 with another . we've most recently seen him at UFC 56, KO'ing Ansar Chalangov in the first round. Noble is primarily a striker, with some good ground game to match, and a deeper 15-6-1 professional MMA record.. The two previously fought in December of 2003 in the Absolute Fighting Championships (AFC #6), where Noble won with a rear naked choke when Alves gave up his back trying to shield from strikes by Noble. Since their meeting in ’03, Alves is 4-1 and Noble is 5-2-1. This is a tough fight to call, should be very close, but I'll stick with a small bet on Alves.
Evan Tanner Vs. Justin Levens
Evan Tanner -305
Justin Levens +275
This fight was originally supposed to be Tanner vs Jeremy Horn, which I was really anticipating. However Horn got injured int training, and Levens stepped in. Evan Tanner is a former member of Team Quest (Randy Couture, etc). Tanner has a pretty impressive 31-6 record, but he's been TKO'd from his last two fights, UFC 53 ( by Rich Franklin and in Ultimate Fight Night 2 by David Loiseau. Tanner has impressive wins over David Terrell (UFC 51, 02/05) Robbie Lawler in UFC 50, 10/04), Phil Baroni (UFCs 45 and 48), and Elvis Sinosic (UFC 38). Justin Levens is a Vale Tudo fighter who trains with Marco Ruas and holds a 7-1 MMA record. Dana White is really going to want to groom Tanner to make another run at the title, as Franklin faces a lack of quality opponents in the middleweight division, and Levens is a good opponent for that - he's a dangerous striker, but his jiu-jitsu still needs a lot of work. They'll throw a little standing up for a while, but Tanner will take this to the ground and then finish with GnP or an armlock. Levens is a decent, dangerous fighter, but Evan Tanner should win this fight and move back on track towards another shot at Rich Franklin down the line.
Final recommendations
* = recommended late place, to take advantage of the line moving our direction
posted by Performify at 2:09 PM
3 Comments:
I've locked in the lines I recommended waiting on, and have increased units in a couple spots where the line moved in our favor.
Final lines, at least pending any massive moves:
Tito Ortiz -263 : 7.89 units to win 3 units
Sean Sherk -156 : 1.56 units to win 1 unit
Marcio Cruz +199 : 1 unit to win 1.92 units
David Terrell -211: 2.11 units to win 1 unit
Nick Thomspon +234 : 1 unit to win 2.34 units
Terry Martin +178 : 1 unit to win 1.78 units
thiago Alves -282 : 1.41 units to win .5 units
Evan Tanner -305 : 1.525 units to win .5 unit
Andrei Arlovski -400 : 8 units to win 2 units
Thiago Alves -282 : 1.41 units to win .5 units: WIN +.5 units
Terry Martin +178 : 1 unit to win 1.78 unit: LOSS -1 unit
David Terrell -211: 2.11 units to win 1 unit: WIN +1 unit
Nick Thompson +234 : 1 unit to win 2.34 units: LOSS -1 unit
2-2 on the undercard, -0.5 units on the undercard.
PPV card getting ready to start.
Arlovski goes down in a big upset. Ortiz wins a close decision.
Final on the night: 5-4 on the night.
6 units won, 11 units lost for -5 units on the night.
Tito Ortiz -263 : 7.89 units to win 3 units : WIN +3 units
Sean Sherk -156 : 1.56 units to win 1 unit : WIN +1 unit
Marcio Cruz +199 : 1 unit to win 1.92 units : LOSS -1 unit
David Terrell -211: 2.11 units to win 1 unit : WIN +1 unit
Nick Thomspon +234 : 1 unit to win 2.34 units : LOSS -1 unit
Terry Martin +178 : 1 unit to win 1.78 units : LOSS -1 unit
thiago Alves -282 : 1.41 units to win .5 units : WIN +.5 unit
Evan Tanner -305 : 1.525 units to win .5 unit : WIN +.5 unit
Andrei Arlovski -400 : 8 units to win 2 units : LOSS -8 units
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