UFC Ultimate Fight Night 04.06
I'm slammed at work with a major project set to launch next wednesday, and another two weeks after that, so very little time lately for poker or anything else. Sorry for the lack of major content the past couple weeks.
I do have enough time for a quick handicapping of the UFC Ultimate Fight Night that happens tomorrow night. Without further ado, the fights:
Luke Cummo vs Jason von Flue
131 Luke Cummo -208
132 Jason von Flue +188
JVF is 11-4-1 but is undefeated in his last five fights(four wins and a draw). Cummo is being seriously overrated due to his tough performance on TUF:2. Luke is a good guy with a good chin and solid Jiu-Jitsu but JVF has more than twice the fight experience, solid submissions, and is better than the 34% chance he's being given here.
Brad Imes vs Dan Christianson
133 Brad Imes -204
134 Dan Christianson +184
Christianson is an experienced MMA fighter. The question with Imes is going to be how much has he benefitted from joining the Militech camp and training with them for the past six months - so far in his career he's depended on size and strength. he's going to face a serious test in Christianson. Christianson was a late addition to the card and came to weigh-ins three pounds overweight - but managed to cut the three poundsto make weight in under an hour. However, I look for Imes to win this fight with the benefit of his new Militech skills: Imes taking the fight to the ground and winning a unanimous decision.
Chris Leben vs Luigi Fioravanti
135 Chris Leben -553
136 Luigi Fioravanti +503
Leben's a monster and wins this one in a walk pretty easily. Leben dominates this fight much like he did Jorge Rivera (first round KO) in his last fight on UFN:3.
Josh Koscheck vs Ansar Chalangov
137 Josh Koscheck -273
138 Ansar Chalangov +253
We last saw sambo fighter Chalangov at UFC:56 - Full Force where he got KO'd in the first round by American Top Team'er Thiago Alves. However, Chalangov needs only a 30% chance of winning this fight to make him +EV here, and he's significantly better than 2:1 here. Koscheck is a punk with strong wrestling but no technique. Chalangov in the upset.
Josh Burkman vs Jon Fitch
139 Josh Burkman -243
140 Jon Fitch +223
Burkman is a Team Quest fighter (Randy Couture, Dan Henderson) who broke his arm in TUF season 2 and was unable to continue. Fitch lost two of his first three fights, and then has won eight straight since then. Fitch is a strong wrestler with a purple belt in jui-jitsu. I look for Fitch to pull off the upset here, derailing Burkman's rising career.
Trevor Prangley vs Chael Sonnen
141 Trevor Prangley -314
142 Chael Sonnen +284
Sonnen is a Team Quest fighter who is 13-7 with his most recent loss to Renato Sobral in UFC:55. Prangley trains with American Kickboxing Academy and is 11-3 with a most recent appearance in UFC:56 where he took Jeremy Horn the distance but lost in a very close decision. Sonnen and Prangley previously met in Janurary 2003, where Prangley won with a first round submission. Sonnen is a solid wrestler but Prangley is a well-rounded fighter (with three appearances in the UFC octagon) with superior conditioning, and he wins this one by submission in the second round.
Stephan Bonnar vs Keith Jardine
143 Stephan Bonnar -333
144 Keith Jardine +303
Bonnar is a significantly superior fighter, with strong jiu-jitsu and good takedowns. Keith is pure punching power and strength, but is not well-rounded and has not demonstrated good conditioning in any of his fights. Bonnar by submission in the second round.
Joe Stevenson vs Josh Neer
145 Joe Stevenson -424
146 Josh Neer +384
Neer is another from the Militech camp, with a pretty impressive record of 16-3-1. Stevenson is a fan favorite, and opened at close to a 5:1 favorite - he's now fallen to a 4:1 favorite but this line is still larger than I'd like to see. I'm making a very weak prediction for Stevenson but not recommending any units here unless you're just an action junkie who wants action on every fight.
Rashad Evans vs Sam Hoger
147 Rashad Evans -194
148 Sam Hoger +181
Hoger has solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills. Rashad is a punk with limited skills who is tremendously overvalued by the public due to his TUF win and his undefeated record. This lined opened at +200 for Hoger so a lot of the value has already been bet out of it, but i'll still recommend him here.
Final recommendations:
Jason von Flue +188 : .53 units to win 1 unit
Brad Imes -204 : 1.02 units to win .5 unit
Chris Leben -553 : 2.26 units to win .5 unit
Ansar Chalangov +253 : .5 unit to win 1.265 units
Jon Fitch +223 : .5 unit to win 1.115 units
Trevor Prangley -314 : 1.57 units to win .5 unit
Stephan Bonnar -333 : 1.665 units to win .5 unit
Joe Stevenson -424: 1.06 units to win .25 unit
Sam Hoger +181 : .55 units to win 1 unit
Prior UFC results: 12-5 record last two UFCs. 5-3 on UFC 58, 7-2 on UFC 57. Click each for more detailed record.
I do have enough time for a quick handicapping of the UFC Ultimate Fight Night that happens tomorrow night. Without further ado, the fights:
Luke Cummo vs Jason von Flue
131 Luke Cummo -208
132 Jason von Flue +188
JVF is 11-4-1 but is undefeated in his last five fights(four wins and a draw). Cummo is being seriously overrated due to his tough performance on TUF:2. Luke is a good guy with a good chin and solid Jiu-Jitsu but JVF has more than twice the fight experience, solid submissions, and is better than the 34% chance he's being given here.
Brad Imes vs Dan Christianson
133 Brad Imes -204
134 Dan Christianson +184
Christianson is an experienced MMA fighter. The question with Imes is going to be how much has he benefitted from joining the Militech camp and training with them for the past six months - so far in his career he's depended on size and strength. he's going to face a serious test in Christianson. Christianson was a late addition to the card and came to weigh-ins three pounds overweight - but managed to cut the three poundsto make weight in under an hour. However, I look for Imes to win this fight with the benefit of his new Militech skills: Imes taking the fight to the ground and winning a unanimous decision.
Chris Leben vs Luigi Fioravanti
135 Chris Leben -553
136 Luigi Fioravanti +503
Leben's a monster and wins this one in a walk pretty easily. Leben dominates this fight much like he did Jorge Rivera (first round KO) in his last fight on UFN:3.
Josh Koscheck vs Ansar Chalangov
137 Josh Koscheck -273
138 Ansar Chalangov +253
We last saw sambo fighter Chalangov at UFC:56 - Full Force where he got KO'd in the first round by American Top Team'er Thiago Alves. However, Chalangov needs only a 30% chance of winning this fight to make him +EV here, and he's significantly better than 2:1 here. Koscheck is a punk with strong wrestling but no technique. Chalangov in the upset.
Josh Burkman vs Jon Fitch
139 Josh Burkman -243
140 Jon Fitch +223
Burkman is a Team Quest fighter (Randy Couture, Dan Henderson) who broke his arm in TUF season 2 and was unable to continue. Fitch lost two of his first three fights, and then has won eight straight since then. Fitch is a strong wrestler with a purple belt in jui-jitsu. I look for Fitch to pull off the upset here, derailing Burkman's rising career.
Trevor Prangley vs Chael Sonnen
141 Trevor Prangley -314
142 Chael Sonnen +284
Sonnen is a Team Quest fighter who is 13-7 with his most recent loss to Renato Sobral in UFC:55. Prangley trains with American Kickboxing Academy and is 11-3 with a most recent appearance in UFC:56 where he took Jeremy Horn the distance but lost in a very close decision. Sonnen and Prangley previously met in Janurary 2003, where Prangley won with a first round submission. Sonnen is a solid wrestler but Prangley is a well-rounded fighter (with three appearances in the UFC octagon) with superior conditioning, and he wins this one by submission in the second round.
Stephan Bonnar vs Keith Jardine
143 Stephan Bonnar -333
144 Keith Jardine +303
Bonnar is a significantly superior fighter, with strong jiu-jitsu and good takedowns. Keith is pure punching power and strength, but is not well-rounded and has not demonstrated good conditioning in any of his fights. Bonnar by submission in the second round.
Joe Stevenson vs Josh Neer
145 Joe Stevenson -424
146 Josh Neer +384
Neer is another from the Militech camp, with a pretty impressive record of 16-3-1. Stevenson is a fan favorite, and opened at close to a 5:1 favorite - he's now fallen to a 4:1 favorite but this line is still larger than I'd like to see. I'm making a very weak prediction for Stevenson but not recommending any units here unless you're just an action junkie who wants action on every fight.
Rashad Evans vs Sam Hoger
147 Rashad Evans -194
148 Sam Hoger +181
Hoger has solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills. Rashad is a punk with limited skills who is tremendously overvalued by the public due to his TUF win and his undefeated record. This lined opened at +200 for Hoger so a lot of the value has already been bet out of it, but i'll still recommend him here.
Final recommendations:
Jason von Flue +188 : .53 units to win 1 unit
Brad Imes -204 : 1.02 units to win .5 unit
Chris Leben -553 : 2.26 units to win .5 unit
Ansar Chalangov +253 : .5 unit to win 1.265 units
Jon Fitch +223 : .5 unit to win 1.115 units
Trevor Prangley -314 : 1.57 units to win .5 unit
Stephan Bonnar -333 : 1.665 units to win .5 unit
Joe Stevenson -424: 1.06 units to win .25 unit
Sam Hoger +181 : .55 units to win 1 unit
Prior UFC results: 12-5 record last two UFCs. 5-3 on UFC 58, 7-2 on UFC 57. Click each for more detailed record.
posted by Performify at 9:35 PM
2 Comments:
if you're intersted in more:
2p2 thread: here.
Sherdog.com picks: here and here
A very bad night in several regards:
(1) we saw four out of nine fights, and the ones that we saw were mostly terrible fights
(2) terrible judging on two fights (one helped, one hurt, so it was at least a wash)
Final results:
Jason von Flue +188 : .53 units to win 1 unit - LOSS -.53
JVF aparently gets cut up early, loses decision
Brad Imes -204 : 1.02 units to win .5 unit - LOSS -1.02
Imes aparently ahead on the cards but then gasses and gets caught in an arm bar in the third.
Chris Leben -553 : 2.26 units to win .5 unit - win +.5 unit
Ansar Chalangov +253 : .5 unit to win 1.265 units - LOSS -.5 unit
Coscheck aparently almost guillotined but secures a first round RNC.
Jon Fitch +223 : .5 unit to win 1.115 units - win +1.115 units
Trevor Prangley -314 : 1.57 units to win .5 unit : LOSS -1.57 units
Stephan Bonnar -333 : 1.665 units to win .5 unit : win +.5 unit
Joe Stevenson -424: 1.06 units to win .25 unit : LOSS -1.06 units
Sam Hoger +181 : .55 units to win 1 unit : LOSS -.55 units
absolutely robbed in a split decision.
Final on the night: 3-6 record, -3.115 units. 2-2 on the televised fights which is really frustrating going 1-4 on the undercard and not getting to see it.
quite possibly the last time I bet even half units on a UFN, I hate not being able to see most of the fights (which also really hurts for handicapping next time)
I do feel that I was on the right side of Hoger (he almost submitted Rashad at the end of the second, and should have won the fight by decision in my opinon). Hard to say on the rest without seeing the events.
We'll make this one up in Mayweather on Saturday and then UFC:59 next weekend. Remember to watch for the Arlovski (Pitbull) line to hit and max it immediately, Siliva is going down like a punk and they're not going to be able to set the line high enough - its going to race away from us as soon as it opens in my opinion.
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