UFC 60 full card predictions
UFC 60 is Saturday, and brings us the eagerly anticipated bout between the legendary Royce Gracie and the juggernaut that is Matt Hughes. Per usual, full card predictions follow.
Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie
Matt Hughes -300
Royce Gracie +270 - but wait to take this
I don't think I need to provide much background on either of these fighters. But I will anyways. Hughes needs no introduction - he's 38-4 and has held the UFC welterweight championship since UFC 48, sucessfully defending his belt in UFC 50 against Georges St. Pierre, in UFC 52 against Frank Trigg, and in UFC 56 against Joe Riggs. Most believe Hughes to be one of, if not the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Royce of course is considered the godfather of MMA, winning three of the first four UFC's, back when they were eight-man bracket fights with three (or four, for UFC 2) fights per night. Gracie's last UFC fight was a disappointing draw in his rematch with Ken Shamrock in the UFC's first superfight at UFC 5. Gracie then stepped away from MMA for five years, returning to the PRIDE Grand Prix in 2000.
Royce's best performance in the past few years was probably the first Pride Grand Prix (in 2000), which I just recently reviewed on DVD. First round Gracie takes out Nobuhiko Takada, who had beaten Mark Coleman just six months before. Gracie beats him by decision, which for a pure BJJ specialist fighting from his back mostly means he had clear control of the fight despite not being able to end it. Next day, in the championship rounds, Royce's fight against "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba was pretty freaking incredible on both sides, and given that it went six 15-minute rounds - yes, ninety minutes - before Gracie's corner threw in the towel... and given that Sakuraba has dominated most of the rest of the best BJJ fighters in the world, despite not being a win for Gracie it was a hell of a fight. It was a lot closer than a lot of people expected, given Sakuraba had already stopped Vitor Belfort in his prime (although Belfort broke his hand in that fight, which limited him), and handed Royler Gracie his first loss. Gracie then took another break from MMA, returning to Pride in 2003 where he fought 225lb judo specialist Hidehiko Yoshida to a draw. Gracie's next fight was a defeat of Chad "Akebono" Rowan in Dec 2004 and isn't really anything to write home about. typical grappler vs. big out of shape guy - "Akebono" Rowan is 0-3 in MMA as a 484-pound sumo fighter. In Gracie's most recent fight, December 2005, he fought to a draw against Hideo Tokoro at K-1-Premium 2005 Dynamite. I think that's probably the most relevant. Tokoro is certainly not the best fighter in the world, with a 14-10 MMA record, but he was quick and athletic, and he and Gracie went to war in a fight that went the distance.
No one argues that Hughes is a beast, and that he certainly should be the favorite to win this fight. The question is, how much of a chance does Gracie realistically have. All four of Hughes' losses (UFC 46 vs. BJ Penn in 2004, Pele Landi-Jons in 2001 and twice vs. Dennis Hallman, in UFC 29 in 2000 and in Extreme Challenge 21 in 1998) have come against great BJJ fighters - and its certainly arguable that all three of those are more well-rounded than Royce. But its certainly demonstrable that the only people who've managed to stop Matt Hughes are top-tier BJJ guys. He's facing the godfather of MMA BJJ next, and I think Gracie certainly has a chance to win this fight.
Hughes opened as a -380 favorite, Royce was around +350. He quickly started falling, he was +330 within 48 hours of the line opening. I was hoping money would roll in on Hughes, and I'd be able to take Royce around +450. I've been really surprised to see the line fall the way it has. Current line is well set, I think: +270 translates to ~27% chance of winning for Gracie.
Look for Royce to be a lot better than expected on his feet - he'll counter Hughes' overhand right with straight rights and with kicks. Gracie has a significant reach advantage on the feet - while he's no where near the striker that Hughes is, I think he's going to surprise Hughes by being better on his feet than Hughes expects. But despite what Hughes says, this fight will go to the ground. Gracie will jump guard if he has to. Gracie can also essentially force Hughes in to a takedown by throwing kicks with his long legs and keeping Hughes at bay. Hughes will be forced to close ground to strike, and when he does Gracie is going to ensure the fight goes to the ground. I see Hughes having trouble creating offense on the ground - Gracie has a very good defensive guard, with his long legs he can keep Hughes away from his head and not allow the traditional ground and pound. Hughes obviously is going to be worried about getting submitted once it hits the ground, so I look for him not to work on the ground nearly as much as he normally would.
Hughes is the favorite, and should be the favorite, there's no question. However, I'm going to go with a very small wager on Gracie here. I know everyone thinks Gracie has absolutely no chance, but I think Gracie is very much a live underdog and I'm going to be rooting for him. I recommend only the smallest of wagers here, though. There are much better values on this card. But I'm going to put a tiny wager on Gracie. If you're purely looking for value, then I'd recommend staying away from this fight. I also recommend placing this bet late: while I've been really surprised to see the line fall the way it has, I think money is going to come in on Hughes tomorrow and I expect to see the line climb. If it doesn't, I might even change this pick. Stay tuned.
Brandon Vera vs. Assuerio Silva
Brandon Vera -222
Assuerio Silva +202
Brandon "The Truth" Vera is the up-and-coming brash fighter from California's City Boxing who holds a 6-0 MMA record. He's coming off a first round KO of Justin Eilers in UFC 57 and before that an explosive second round knockout of Fabiano Scherner at Ultimate Fight Night 2. Vera has an impressive pedigree, as a two-time Pan-American Champion, Abu-Dhabi veteran, 8x Grapplers Quest Champion, W.K.A. Muay Thai National champion. Silva is Muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter, a Vale Tudo and Pride veteran with a 10-4 MMA record. Silva lost two of his first three fights, and then went on a seven fight win streak during late 1999 through 2001. He then took a couple years off, and returned to MMA in 2003, where he's since lost two of his four fights since his return: losses to Aleksander Emelianenko in PRIDE - Busihido 1 in late 2003, and then in his UFC debut a loss to Tim Sylvia at Ultimate Fight Night 3 in January 2006 - a fight in which Silva took Sylvia the distance and lost a unanimous decision. This fight is a little closer than the line indicates, as Vera's popularity makes him a much bigger target for the public money. Assuerio Silva has also never been stopped in his 14 fight career, so I expect this to be a three round striking war. So betting the underdog would be a +EV move here - the current line gives Silva a 1/3 chance of winning, and I'd put it closer to 40%. However, that being said I think this line is close enough that my pick is still going to be Vera by decision.
Mike Swick vs. Joe Riggs
Mike Swick -109
Joe Riggs -101
"Quick" Mike Swick of American Kickboxing Academy - and TUF season one - has a 8-1 MMA record, with his only loss a KO by fellow TUF'er Chris Leben in WEC 9. Swick's last major fight was against Steve Vigneault at UFC 58 (USA vs. Canada) in which he score a first round submission. Joe "Diesel" Riggs at 23 years old is already an MMA veteran, with a 24-7 MMA record. Riggs holds a BJJ blue belt, and got his MMA start with the "Rage In The Cage" series, fighting in RITC 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, 45, 53, and 60. Riggs then made his UFC debut in UFC 49 defeating Joe Doerksen, and then has gone on to lose to Ivan Salaverry in UFC 52, then put on a three consecutive PPV run with a win over Chris Lytle in UFC 55, lose to Matt Hughes in UFC 56, and then defeated Nick Diaz by unanimous decision in UFC 57. Riggs is moving up to middleweight (185) for this fight, which might hurt his quickness - he's much better suited for his current fighting class of welterweight (170). As the line indicates, this is obviously the closest fight of the evening. There are a lot of unknowns which make this match very tough to call a winner. Swick is essentially untested, and Riggs will be the first major test of his career. How will Swick fare against someone he likely can't knock out quickly? How will Riggs fare at 185? This is going to be an exciting fight, it shouldn't go to the ground and should go back and forth on the feet. This is ultimately too close to call as a serious winner, but I'm going to go with Rigg's experience and look for him to finally slow down "Quick" Swick with a third round TKO.
Diego Sanchez vs. John Alessio
Diego Sanchez -474
John Alessio +434
Sanchez is of course the winner of the first The Ultimate Fighter, with a 14-0 professional MMA record (and a 1-0 pro boxing record, with his win by knockout). Sanchez is a student of Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu, and is a very well-rounded fighter trained in wrestling, boxing, kickboxing and jiu-jitsu. Alessio is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter training under the Millenia MMA center with Gabe Ruediger, with a MMA record of 16-7. However, most of Alessio's losses came early in his career: he is 10-2 since 2001. This fight should actually be a lot closer than the line indicates: Alessio is a MMA veteran with numerous fights under his belt in the UFC, KotC, Pride, and Extreme Challenge. Sanchez will most likely win this fight, however as with many crowd-favorite TUF fighters, this line is off. Small wager here on Alessio, as the real line should be much closer to the +250 to +300 range.
Melvin Guillard vs. Rick Davis undercard fight, may not be telecast
Melvin Guillard -264
Rick Davis +244
This is the strangest fight on the card - don't expect this to be televised unless something insane happens during the bout. Guillard is a kickboxer and wrestler with an extensive MMA record (60 amateur fights and 26 pro fights with a 19-5-2 record), and was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter season two. In TUF:2, Guillard lost to Josh Burkman in the second episode, but was an undercard fight on the finale where he defeated fellow TUF'er Marcus Davis. Guillard then was stopped by Josh Neer at Ultimate Fight Night 3. Davis is 3-0-1, almost an unknown fighter. This is a pure setup fight, where Guillard is being given a match to re-establish himself in the octagon. Biggest lock on the card - Guillard by first round knockout.
Dean Lister vs. Alessio Sakara undercard fight, may not be telecast
Dean Lister -173
Alessio Sakara +163
Lister you might recognize as an assistant coach for Tito Ortiz on TUF:3. Lister is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter from California (1,2,3, Team Punishment!) with a relatively impressive pedigree. He is a two-time National Sambo champion, an Abu Dhabi Submission wrestling veteran and AD Absolute Division Champion (in which he beat Marcio Cruz and Nathan Marquardt among others). Dean is a BJJ brown belt training under Royce Gracie , and also trains at City Boxing for boxing, kickboxing and cardio. And of course, he trains with "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz. "Legionarius" Sakara we've seen at UFC 57 where he beat Elvis Sinosic by decision, and in UFC 55 where he got kicked in the groin and the fight was stopped. Sakara is a former professional boxer, with blinding hand speed and amazing precision.
Lister has a 7-4 MMA record: he opened with an impressive 6-1 run in King of the Cage, but has lost three of his last four fights - he lost his last KotC fight in December 2003 against Jeremy Horn (in one of the best KotC fights I've ever seen, a fight that went the distance and Lister nearly pulled the upset over Horn), and then two of his three fights once he jumped from KotC to Pride. This could be another of the closest fights on the cards - Sakara is a significantly superior striker here with very heavy hands, Lister is significantly better on the ground. However this also has an outside possibility of being a very boring fight - if Lister takes this to the ground, Sakara doesn't have much in terms of ground skills so he'll be holding on and praying. Sakara is a very live underdog here with his heavy hands, this fight could go either way. But assuming Lister can successfully put Sakara on his back, Lister by submission in the late second round.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabiano Scherner undercard fight, may not be telecast
Gabriel Gonzaga -242
Fabiano Scherner +222
This is a matchup of two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts: Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga trains with Chute Boxe academy, squaring off against American Top Team West fighter Gabiano "Pega-Leve" Scherner. They sport similar records, 5-1 for Gonzaga and 5-2 for Scherner. Both have an impressive collection of BJJ trophies on the wall: Gonzaga is a four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu National Champion and a five-time Sao Paulo State Brazilian jiu-jitsu Champiop. Gonzaga won the heavyweight BJJ Black Belt Grand Prix in 2004 as well as the ADCC Trials Brazil Champion and took second place in ADCC 2005; Scherner is a six-time Brazilian National Champion, having wins in the Jiu-Jitsu World Champion (absolute division), Copa RFT Champion, Copa America (absolute division), ADCC Brazilian Trials 2003 runner-up and was the winner of the ADCC Brazilian Trials 2005. In MMA Scherner also has won the IFC North American heavyweight belt.
We last saw Scherner at Ultimate Fight Night 2, where he was TKO'd by Brandon Vera in the second round. We last saw Gonzaga at UFC 56, where he KO'd Kevin Jordan late in the third round. Overall Gonzaga has the slightly more impressive fight resume, with MMA wins over Branden Lee Hinkle and grappling wins over (former UFC heavyweight champ) Ricco Rodriguez and (UFC heavyweight) Marcio Cruz . Both fighters have met before, once at the ADCC Brazilian Trails - not an MMA event, a submission grappling event. Gonzaga won that bout. This will feature much more striking than you'd think given that we've got two BJJ blackbelts here. Gonzaga is a better fighter here, with a better resume. Gonzaga by submission, setup by strikes, in the second round.
Jeremy Horn vs. Chael Sonnen undercard fight, may not be telecast
Jeremy Horn -278
Chael Sonnen +258
Horn is pretty much the definition of the term MMA veteran. At thirty years old, he sports a 76-14-5 MMA record, with notable wins over David "the crow" Loiseau, Forrest Griffin, and a young Chuck Liddell back in UFC 19 (March 1999). We’ve most recently seen Horn in the UFC at 54: Boiling Point where he was KO'd by Chuck Liddell, and again at UFC 56: Full Force (November 2005) where he defeated Treveor Prangley by unanimous decision. Horn faces Team Quest wrestler Chael Sonnen, who holds a 14-7-1 MMA record. We last saw Sonnen at Ultimate Fight Night 4 back in April, where he won a unanimous decision over Trevor Prangley. Sonnen's previous fight was his UFC debut, a loss to Renato Sobral by triangle choke in UFC 55. Sonnen has fought horn twice, first at Extreme Challenge 57 in May 2004 where he was TKO'd in the first round (Horn opened a cut that stopped the fight) and again at SportFight 6 in September 2004 where Jeremy Horn again won with a guillotine choke. Horn wins this fight easily.
Spencer Fisher Vs. Matt Wiman undercard fight, may not be telecast
Spencer Fisher NL
Matt Wiman NL
Fisher is an MMA veteran with a 17-2 record, and fights with the Miletich camp. Wiman is an up-and-comer who fights with Tulsa Top Team, who is well-rounded with a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and trains stand-up with Sam Adams Muay Thai. Wiman is the Mid-America Extreme Fighting Champion in the 170-pound category but is fighting here as a lightweight (155 lbs). We last saw Fisher win a split decision over Sam Stout at UFC 58 (USA vs. Canada), and we also saw him pull wins at Ultimate fight Night 2 over Thiago Alves and UFN 3 over Aaron Riley. Wiman is a live underdog here, and a good fighter, but Fisher's octagon experience will likely prove to be too much for the young fighter to handle. We'll have to see what the line says if its released - I'd be on Fisher at -250 or less, and would start to strongly look at Wiman at anything above +200.
Units transacted, using $100 units
Royce Gracie: secured arbitrage, see comments: +1.8 units risk free if he wins
Brandon Vera -222 : .55 units to win .25 units
Joe Riggs -101 : .2525 units to win .25 units
John Alessio +434 : .2304 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard -264 : 2.64 units to win 1 unit
Dean Lister -173 : .865 units to win .5 unit
Gabriel Gonzaga -242 : 2.42 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Horn -278 : 2.78 units to win 1 unit
Spencer Fisher : No Line
Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie
Matt Hughes -300
Royce Gracie +270 - but wait to take this
I don't think I need to provide much background on either of these fighters. But I will anyways. Hughes needs no introduction - he's 38-4 and has held the UFC welterweight championship since UFC 48, sucessfully defending his belt in UFC 50 against Georges St. Pierre, in UFC 52 against Frank Trigg, and in UFC 56 against Joe Riggs. Most believe Hughes to be one of, if not the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Royce of course is considered the godfather of MMA, winning three of the first four UFC's, back when they were eight-man bracket fights with three (or four, for UFC 2) fights per night. Gracie's last UFC fight was a disappointing draw in his rematch with Ken Shamrock in the UFC's first superfight at UFC 5. Gracie then stepped away from MMA for five years, returning to the PRIDE Grand Prix in 2000.
Royce's best performance in the past few years was probably the first Pride Grand Prix (in 2000), which I just recently reviewed on DVD. First round Gracie takes out Nobuhiko Takada, who had beaten Mark Coleman just six months before. Gracie beats him by decision, which for a pure BJJ specialist fighting from his back mostly means he had clear control of the fight despite not being able to end it. Next day, in the championship rounds, Royce's fight against "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba was pretty freaking incredible on both sides, and given that it went six 15-minute rounds - yes, ninety minutes - before Gracie's corner threw in the towel... and given that Sakuraba has dominated most of the rest of the best BJJ fighters in the world, despite not being a win for Gracie it was a hell of a fight. It was a lot closer than a lot of people expected, given Sakuraba had already stopped Vitor Belfort in his prime (although Belfort broke his hand in that fight, which limited him), and handed Royler Gracie his first loss. Gracie then took another break from MMA, returning to Pride in 2003 where he fought 225lb judo specialist Hidehiko Yoshida to a draw. Gracie's next fight was a defeat of Chad "Akebono" Rowan in Dec 2004 and isn't really anything to write home about. typical grappler vs. big out of shape guy - "Akebono" Rowan is 0-3 in MMA as a 484-pound sumo fighter. In Gracie's most recent fight, December 2005, he fought to a draw against Hideo Tokoro at K-1-Premium 2005 Dynamite. I think that's probably the most relevant. Tokoro is certainly not the best fighter in the world, with a 14-10 MMA record, but he was quick and athletic, and he and Gracie went to war in a fight that went the distance.
No one argues that Hughes is a beast, and that he certainly should be the favorite to win this fight. The question is, how much of a chance does Gracie realistically have. All four of Hughes' losses (UFC 46 vs. BJ Penn in 2004, Pele Landi-Jons in 2001 and twice vs. Dennis Hallman, in UFC 29 in 2000 and in Extreme Challenge 21 in 1998) have come against great BJJ fighters - and its certainly arguable that all three of those are more well-rounded than Royce. But its certainly demonstrable that the only people who've managed to stop Matt Hughes are top-tier BJJ guys. He's facing the godfather of MMA BJJ next, and I think Gracie certainly has a chance to win this fight.
Hughes opened as a -380 favorite, Royce was around +350. He quickly started falling, he was +330 within 48 hours of the line opening. I was hoping money would roll in on Hughes, and I'd be able to take Royce around +450. I've been really surprised to see the line fall the way it has. Current line is well set, I think: +270 translates to ~27% chance of winning for Gracie.
Look for Royce to be a lot better than expected on his feet - he'll counter Hughes' overhand right with straight rights and with kicks. Gracie has a significant reach advantage on the feet - while he's no where near the striker that Hughes is, I think he's going to surprise Hughes by being better on his feet than Hughes expects. But despite what Hughes says, this fight will go to the ground. Gracie will jump guard if he has to. Gracie can also essentially force Hughes in to a takedown by throwing kicks with his long legs and keeping Hughes at bay. Hughes will be forced to close ground to strike, and when he does Gracie is going to ensure the fight goes to the ground. I see Hughes having trouble creating offense on the ground - Gracie has a very good defensive guard, with his long legs he can keep Hughes away from his head and not allow the traditional ground and pound. Hughes obviously is going to be worried about getting submitted once it hits the ground, so I look for him not to work on the ground nearly as much as he normally would.
Hughes is the favorite, and should be the favorite, there's no question. However, I'm going to go with a very small wager on Gracie here. I know everyone thinks Gracie has absolutely no chance, but I think Gracie is very much a live underdog and I'm going to be rooting for him. I recommend only the smallest of wagers here, though. There are much better values on this card. But I'm going to put a tiny wager on Gracie. If you're purely looking for value, then I'd recommend staying away from this fight. I also recommend placing this bet late: while I've been really surprised to see the line fall the way it has, I think money is going to come in on Hughes tomorrow and I expect to see the line climb. If it doesn't, I might even change this pick. Stay tuned.
Brandon Vera vs. Assuerio Silva
Brandon Vera -222
Assuerio Silva +202
Brandon "The Truth" Vera is the up-and-coming brash fighter from California's City Boxing who holds a 6-0 MMA record. He's coming off a first round KO of Justin Eilers in UFC 57 and before that an explosive second round knockout of Fabiano Scherner at Ultimate Fight Night 2. Vera has an impressive pedigree, as a two-time Pan-American Champion, Abu-Dhabi veteran, 8x Grapplers Quest Champion, W.K.A. Muay Thai National champion. Silva is Muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter, a Vale Tudo and Pride veteran with a 10-4 MMA record. Silva lost two of his first three fights, and then went on a seven fight win streak during late 1999 through 2001. He then took a couple years off, and returned to MMA in 2003, where he's since lost two of his four fights since his return: losses to Aleksander Emelianenko in PRIDE - Busihido 1 in late 2003, and then in his UFC debut a loss to Tim Sylvia at Ultimate Fight Night 3 in January 2006 - a fight in which Silva took Sylvia the distance and lost a unanimous decision. This fight is a little closer than the line indicates, as Vera's popularity makes him a much bigger target for the public money. Assuerio Silva has also never been stopped in his 14 fight career, so I expect this to be a three round striking war. So betting the underdog would be a +EV move here - the current line gives Silva a 1/3 chance of winning, and I'd put it closer to 40%. However, that being said I think this line is close enough that my pick is still going to be Vera by decision.
Mike Swick vs. Joe Riggs
Mike Swick -109
Joe Riggs -101
"Quick" Mike Swick of American Kickboxing Academy - and TUF season one - has a 8-1 MMA record, with his only loss a KO by fellow TUF'er Chris Leben in WEC 9. Swick's last major fight was against Steve Vigneault at UFC 58 (USA vs. Canada) in which he score a first round submission. Joe "Diesel" Riggs at 23 years old is already an MMA veteran, with a 24-7 MMA record. Riggs holds a BJJ blue belt, and got his MMA start with the "Rage In The Cage" series, fighting in RITC 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, 45, 53, and 60. Riggs then made his UFC debut in UFC 49 defeating Joe Doerksen, and then has gone on to lose to Ivan Salaverry in UFC 52, then put on a three consecutive PPV run with a win over Chris Lytle in UFC 55, lose to Matt Hughes in UFC 56, and then defeated Nick Diaz by unanimous decision in UFC 57. Riggs is moving up to middleweight (185) for this fight, which might hurt his quickness - he's much better suited for his current fighting class of welterweight (170). As the line indicates, this is obviously the closest fight of the evening. There are a lot of unknowns which make this match very tough to call a winner. Swick is essentially untested, and Riggs will be the first major test of his career. How will Swick fare against someone he likely can't knock out quickly? How will Riggs fare at 185? This is going to be an exciting fight, it shouldn't go to the ground and should go back and forth on the feet. This is ultimately too close to call as a serious winner, but I'm going to go with Rigg's experience and look for him to finally slow down "Quick" Swick with a third round TKO.
Diego Sanchez vs. John Alessio
Diego Sanchez -474
John Alessio +434
Sanchez is of course the winner of the first The Ultimate Fighter, with a 14-0 professional MMA record (and a 1-0 pro boxing record, with his win by knockout). Sanchez is a student of Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu, and is a very well-rounded fighter trained in wrestling, boxing, kickboxing and jiu-jitsu. Alessio is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter training under the Millenia MMA center with Gabe Ruediger, with a MMA record of 16-7. However, most of Alessio's losses came early in his career: he is 10-2 since 2001. This fight should actually be a lot closer than the line indicates: Alessio is a MMA veteran with numerous fights under his belt in the UFC, KotC, Pride, and Extreme Challenge. Sanchez will most likely win this fight, however as with many crowd-favorite TUF fighters, this line is off. Small wager here on Alessio, as the real line should be much closer to the +250 to +300 range.
Melvin Guillard vs. Rick Davis undercard fight, may not be telecast
Melvin Guillard -264
Rick Davis +244
This is the strangest fight on the card - don't expect this to be televised unless something insane happens during the bout. Guillard is a kickboxer and wrestler with an extensive MMA record (60 amateur fights and 26 pro fights with a 19-5-2 record), and was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter season two. In TUF:2, Guillard lost to Josh Burkman in the second episode, but was an undercard fight on the finale where he defeated fellow TUF'er Marcus Davis. Guillard then was stopped by Josh Neer at Ultimate Fight Night 3. Davis is 3-0-1, almost an unknown fighter. This is a pure setup fight, where Guillard is being given a match to re-establish himself in the octagon. Biggest lock on the card - Guillard by first round knockout.
Dean Lister vs. Alessio Sakara undercard fight, may not be telecast
Dean Lister -173
Alessio Sakara +163
Lister you might recognize as an assistant coach for Tito Ortiz on TUF:3. Lister is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter from California (1,2,3, Team Punishment!) with a relatively impressive pedigree. He is a two-time National Sambo champion, an Abu Dhabi Submission wrestling veteran and AD Absolute Division Champion (in which he beat Marcio Cruz and Nathan Marquardt among others). Dean is a BJJ brown belt training under Royce Gracie , and also trains at City Boxing for boxing, kickboxing and cardio. And of course, he trains with "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz. "Legionarius" Sakara we've seen at UFC 57 where he beat Elvis Sinosic by decision, and in UFC 55 where he got kicked in the groin and the fight was stopped. Sakara is a former professional boxer, with blinding hand speed and amazing precision.
Lister has a 7-4 MMA record: he opened with an impressive 6-1 run in King of the Cage, but has lost three of his last four fights - he lost his last KotC fight in December 2003 against Jeremy Horn (in one of the best KotC fights I've ever seen, a fight that went the distance and Lister nearly pulled the upset over Horn), and then two of his three fights once he jumped from KotC to Pride. This could be another of the closest fights on the cards - Sakara is a significantly superior striker here with very heavy hands, Lister is significantly better on the ground. However this also has an outside possibility of being a very boring fight - if Lister takes this to the ground, Sakara doesn't have much in terms of ground skills so he'll be holding on and praying. Sakara is a very live underdog here with his heavy hands, this fight could go either way. But assuming Lister can successfully put Sakara on his back, Lister by submission in the late second round.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabiano Scherner undercard fight, may not be telecast
Gabriel Gonzaga -242
Fabiano Scherner +222
This is a matchup of two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts: Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga trains with Chute Boxe academy, squaring off against American Top Team West fighter Gabiano "Pega-Leve" Scherner. They sport similar records, 5-1 for Gonzaga and 5-2 for Scherner. Both have an impressive collection of BJJ trophies on the wall: Gonzaga is a four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu National Champion and a five-time Sao Paulo State Brazilian jiu-jitsu Champiop. Gonzaga won the heavyweight BJJ Black Belt Grand Prix in 2004 as well as the ADCC Trials Brazil Champion and took second place in ADCC 2005; Scherner is a six-time Brazilian National Champion, having wins in the Jiu-Jitsu World Champion (absolute division), Copa RFT Champion, Copa America (absolute division), ADCC Brazilian Trials 2003 runner-up and was the winner of the ADCC Brazilian Trials 2005. In MMA Scherner also has won the IFC North American heavyweight belt.
We last saw Scherner at Ultimate Fight Night 2, where he was TKO'd by Brandon Vera in the second round. We last saw Gonzaga at UFC 56, where he KO'd Kevin Jordan late in the third round. Overall Gonzaga has the slightly more impressive fight resume, with MMA wins over Branden Lee Hinkle and grappling wins over (former UFC heavyweight champ) Ricco Rodriguez and (UFC heavyweight) Marcio Cruz . Both fighters have met before, once at the ADCC Brazilian Trails - not an MMA event, a submission grappling event. Gonzaga won that bout. This will feature much more striking than you'd think given that we've got two BJJ blackbelts here. Gonzaga is a better fighter here, with a better resume. Gonzaga by submission, setup by strikes, in the second round.
Jeremy Horn vs. Chael Sonnen undercard fight, may not be telecast
Jeremy Horn -278
Chael Sonnen +258
Horn is pretty much the definition of the term MMA veteran. At thirty years old, he sports a 76-14-5 MMA record, with notable wins over David "the crow" Loiseau, Forrest Griffin, and a young Chuck Liddell back in UFC 19 (March 1999). We’ve most recently seen Horn in the UFC at 54: Boiling Point where he was KO'd by Chuck Liddell, and again at UFC 56: Full Force (November 2005) where he defeated Treveor Prangley by unanimous decision. Horn faces Team Quest wrestler Chael Sonnen, who holds a 14-7-1 MMA record. We last saw Sonnen at Ultimate Fight Night 4 back in April, where he won a unanimous decision over Trevor Prangley. Sonnen's previous fight was his UFC debut, a loss to Renato Sobral by triangle choke in UFC 55. Sonnen has fought horn twice, first at Extreme Challenge 57 in May 2004 where he was TKO'd in the first round (Horn opened a cut that stopped the fight) and again at SportFight 6 in September 2004 where Jeremy Horn again won with a guillotine choke. Horn wins this fight easily.
Spencer Fisher Vs. Matt Wiman undercard fight, may not be telecast
Spencer Fisher NL
Matt Wiman NL
Fisher is an MMA veteran with a 17-2 record, and fights with the Miletich camp. Wiman is an up-and-comer who fights with Tulsa Top Team, who is well-rounded with a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and trains stand-up with Sam Adams Muay Thai. Wiman is the Mid-America Extreme Fighting Champion in the 170-pound category but is fighting here as a lightweight (155 lbs). We last saw Fisher win a split decision over Sam Stout at UFC 58 (USA vs. Canada), and we also saw him pull wins at Ultimate fight Night 2 over Thiago Alves and UFN 3 over Aaron Riley. Wiman is a live underdog here, and a good fighter, but Fisher's octagon experience will likely prove to be too much for the young fighter to handle. We'll have to see what the line says if its released - I'd be on Fisher at -250 or less, and would start to strongly look at Wiman at anything above +200.
Units transacted, using $100 units
Royce Gracie: secured arbitrage, see comments: +1.8 units risk free if he wins
Brandon Vera -222 : .55 units to win .25 units
Joe Riggs -101 : .2525 units to win .25 units
John Alessio +434 : .2304 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard -264 : 2.64 units to win 1 unit
Dean Lister -173 : .865 units to win .5 unit
Gabriel Gonzaga -242 : 2.42 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Horn -278 : 2.78 units to win 1 unit
Spencer Fisher : No Line
posted by Performify at 3:42 PM
6 Comments:
I have to admit that I'm not a UFC fan. I've never really watched it; however, I was away on business last month and they had a history of Gracie on TV and I was simply amazed. So in that vain, I will be rooting heavily for Royce as well.
It looks like we (the family) will be heading to KC the weekend of June 23-25. You think we can get a STL/KC showdown? If so, I can try and pimp something on my blog for that Saturday.
i took hughes at -274 for 1000, a lot of money for my bankroll so you could say i strongly disagree with you.
ive posted in a couple of the ufc threads on 2+2 with you and dropped you an email. thanks again for the point in the right direction as far as sportsbooks for mma, and now that im back in northwest missouri for a few months maybe we'll cross paths.
Hit a massive arb on Gracie / Hughes between Bodog and Pinnacle. As of this posting, its still available albeit at a little lower profit.
As I wanted to be able to cheer for Gracie, I went with $660 on Hughes -220 at Bodog to win $300, and a freeroll $300 on Gracie on Pinny at +280, giving me a payout of $840 if Gracie wins: so a $180 profit if Gracie wins and no loss if Hughes wins.
oh god
i should have known with all the line moving at pinnacle to check other books
if i saw hughes at 220 i'd have dropped another g note
Results on a very nice night:
Royce Gracie: arb'd Gracie, did not win: $0 loss
Pretty obvious that Gracie was outmatched here. Fight went as anticipated for the first twenty seconds or so - Gracie was doing a good job on the feet, striking with leg kicks. Gracie got the fight to the ground. And then Hughes just manhandled him there.
Brandon Vera -222 : .55 units to win .25 units: WIN +.25 units
Vera demonstrated why he's the up and coming force. I called a decision, instead we got a second round guillotine choke
Joe Riggs -101 : .2525 units to win .25 units: LOSS -.2525 units
I identified that this fight would be close, and indeed it was - Riggs seemed to be doing pretty well in the fight, and then got caught in a front choke. Still, I'd say Swick is really untested - I would have liked to see a little more out of Riggs to see Swick's true mettle.
John Alessio +434 : .2304 units to win 1 unit : LOSS -.2304 units
very close loss, obvious i was correct in my handicapping that this was a significantly +EV line as Alessio gave Diego all he could handle. I think the fight should have been ruled a draw personally. Judge Cecil Peoples proves he's a retard once again, handing out a 30-27 decision which clearly indicates he has no idea how to score an MMA match.
Melvin Guillard -264 : 2.64 units to win 1 unit. WIN +1 unit
I predicted a first round KO, and we got it. One-sided domination as predicted.
Dean Lister -173 : .865 units to win .5 unit. WIN +.5 unit
Lister scores a nice win for Team Punishment and shows why he's one of the most respected grapplers out there. I called Lister by submission in the second round, instead he was able to score the submission victory in the first.
Gabriel Gonzaga -242 : 2.42 units to win 1 unit. WIN +1 unit
I called Gonzaga by submission setup by strikes in the second. Gonzaga didn't need the submission, securing the second round win with strikes alone.
Jeremy Horn -278 : 2.78 units to win 1 unit: WIN +1 unit
Horn secures an armbar submission to take the win in the second round.
Spencer Fisher : No Line
I never saw a line released, but Fisher won as predicted.
Results on the night: 6-3 on called fights, +3.2671 units as called.. 5-2 on active wagered fights (discounting the Fisher win with NL and the Gracie arb loss. I lost the Gracie arbitrage which didn't cost me anything, and the identified close fight on Riggs vs Swick, and lost a very close decision which could have gone either way in Alessio vs Sanchez.
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