Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week One
Normally I do a full detailed writeup on each game, but due to playing a role in a friend's wedding last night (which took three nights and two full days out of my schedule this week) I wasn't able to finish the writeup.
I have completted my capping though, and will post my picks for the record.
First, last year's record:
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
All lines current as of posting:
Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs moneyline (+103) : Five units
Wait to place right before kickoff might get even better than +103
Chargers -3 +110 : three units
Wait on this line also: its going to move off three the way this is going.
Colts -3 +103 : two units
Waiting on this line as well, expect continued move in my favor
Chicago -3.5 -111 : one unit
terrible line movement for this pick but still worth one unit under my system.
I have completted my capping though, and will post my picks for the record.
First, last year's record:
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
All lines current as of posting:
Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs moneyline (+103) : Five units
Wait to place right before kickoff might get even better than +103
Chargers -3 +110 : three units
Wait on this line also: its going to move off three the way this is going.
Colts -3 +103 : two units
Waiting on this line as well, expect continued move in my favor
Chicago -3.5 -111 : one unit
terrible line movement for this pick but still worth one unit under my system.
posted by Performify at 11:46 AM
4 Comments:
Chiefs game is a writeoff at this point. Handicapping I feel was correct: Cheifs upgraded defense has been able to pretty much control the Bengals, but the Chiefs had two big turnovers early which setup the two Cinci TDs and lost QB Trent Green midway through the game on a viscious hit. Chiefs still squandered a 3rd quarter opportunity with their backup QB which could have kept things close, but the backup struggled when he first entered the game with several bad throws and another turnover on a fumble.
Colts line has moved as expected, currently +108. Enough movement may result in an additional unit here.
Chicago line has moved back my favor a little. It may become a two-unit play if the line moves enough, will update.
Results, so far:
Chiefs ML: -5 units
Indy -3: +2.14 units
Chicago -3.5: +2 units
On the day: 2-1, -0.84 units.
Pending: San Diego Chargers game Monday night.
2 units placed at +115. One unit pending placement.
Line currently down to +111 - recommend placing the third unit as soon as it drops to +109 to +110, if it does.
Recommend adding a fourth unit if it moves to +120 or moves off the three.
WEEK ONE RESULTS:
Chiefs moneyline +103: LOSS, -5 units
San Diego -3 +115 x2, +109 x1, WIN +3.39 units
Indy -3: WIN, +2.14 units
Chicago -3.5: WIN, +2 units
RESULTS: 3-1 on the week, +2.53 units (3-1 +2.53u YTD).
Loss on Game of the Week (0-1 -5u YTD).
Per post above I truly believe the Chiefs game was handicapped correctly, that the ML +103 had value. Chiefs had an early turnover which setup the first Cinci TD and held the Bengals to only one other serious scoring drive, the rest of the Cinci points were off relatively fluke turnovers. Had Dante Hall not dropped that first punt, had Green not gotten hurt, I think the Chiefs win this game. But that's football, and that's why we can't win 'em all...
San Diego exactly as expected. Per post I made in another thread, I expect Oakland to win 6 games this year at most.
Indy was a close cover, and a very good game. one or two plays could have swung that either way, especially in the end. Terrible luck when that game went to a two-point offset early.
Chicago dominated, Green Bay is terrible. I'll be surprised if Green Bay wins a game as long as Favre is QB'ing.
More formal thoughts later, sometime.
good week, can't worry about Green or early turnovers week 1. It happens.
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