Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Two
LAST WEEK RESULTS: 3-1 on the week, +2.53 units (3-1 +2.53u YTD). Loss on Game of the Week (0-1 -5u YTD).
This week brings a lot of well-set lines in my opinion, but there is still some value out there. On to the picks:
Atlanta -4.5 (+104) vs Tampa Bay
Tampa's young offensive line will continue to struggle this week, especially faced with the very aggressive Atlanta front four. While standout DE John Abraham will most likely not play, Patrick Kerney will. Look for the Falcons to use a lot of big Grady Jackson the a 360-pound veteran nose tackle they picked up a few weeks ago to effectively clog the middle, giving Grady about 70% of the snaps over faster but smaller DT Darrell Shropshire. Look for the Falcons defense to control the line of scrimmage, slowing Cadillac Williams and pressuring Tampa QB Chris Simms. Simms has a lot of problems with blocked passes at the line due to his throwing motion and due to the 2-step drop that they like to run. Look for Atlanta's big defensive ends to knock down several passes, which will further frustrate Simms. Caddilac is also still facing trouble with back spasms from earlier in the week, so look for him to be less than 100% and subbed more frequently by Michael Pittman. Falcons 24, Tampa Bay 10. Game of the Week.
Saints -3 (+122) at Packers
In short, I do think the Packers are as bad as they've looked in the preseason and last week. Ex-Seahawks safety Marquand Manuel is not a good fit for the Green Bay cover 2 defense: he's a run stopper who is below average playing deep cover, which is where he's forced to play in the cover 2. Look for Drew Brees to look to throw in to that deep cover 2 area defended by Manuel, and look for Manuel to give up some big plays. Look for Saints standout rookies Bush or Colston or both to light him up on some deep post/corner routes. Look for Saints standount d-tackle Brian Young (3 sacks last week) to have a huge day against Packers rookie guard Tony Moll and rookie center Jason Spitz. Expect Favre to be flushed from the pocket frequently, leading to sacks by the defensive ends and leading to Favre giving the ball away by throwing on the run. I don't expect this to always be the blowout that the Packers faced in Week One, but I do expect the Saints to have this game in hand a high percentage of the time. As such, i'm recommending moving the line from -2 (-105) to -3 (+122) as is availble on Pinnacle. New Orleans 28, Green Bay 14.
Giants +3 (-123) at Philly
With Westbrook, LB Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard all banged up, this line has not moved enough to compensate for the injuries this week. While I like Philly this year, I think they suffer a letdown at home and either win this by a field goal or lose outright. I expect the Giants superior running game to grind a lot of clock and keep this game a lot closer than expected. Eagles 21, New York Football Giants 20.
Tease of the Week: Chicago -8 + Seattle -7.
These games tease to Chicago -2 and Seattle -1. Chicago has a tremendous amount of value here at -2. Seattle likewise has value crossing the -7 and -3, but not quite as much as Chicago. If you don't like Seattle, you can tease in Baltimore -13 (teases down to -7, or even grab a 6.5 point teaser to get inside 7) to replace. Final scores: Chicago 21-17, Seattle 28-21.
Recap:
Atlanta -4.5 +104 : 5 units to win 5.20 units
Saints -3 +122 : 3 units to win 3.66 units
Giants +3 -123 : 1.23 units to win 1 unit
Teaser: Chicago -2, Seattle -1 : 2.2 units to win 2 unit
This week brings a lot of well-set lines in my opinion, but there is still some value out there. On to the picks:
Atlanta -4.5 (+104) vs Tampa Bay
Tampa's young offensive line will continue to struggle this week, especially faced with the very aggressive Atlanta front four. While standout DE John Abraham will most likely not play, Patrick Kerney will. Look for the Falcons to use a lot of big Grady Jackson the a 360-pound veteran nose tackle they picked up a few weeks ago to effectively clog the middle, giving Grady about 70% of the snaps over faster but smaller DT Darrell Shropshire. Look for the Falcons defense to control the line of scrimmage, slowing Cadillac Williams and pressuring Tampa QB Chris Simms. Simms has a lot of problems with blocked passes at the line due to his throwing motion and due to the 2-step drop that they like to run. Look for Atlanta's big defensive ends to knock down several passes, which will further frustrate Simms. Caddilac is also still facing trouble with back spasms from earlier in the week, so look for him to be less than 100% and subbed more frequently by Michael Pittman. Falcons 24, Tampa Bay 10. Game of the Week.
Saints -3 (+122) at Packers
In short, I do think the Packers are as bad as they've looked in the preseason and last week. Ex-Seahawks safety Marquand Manuel is not a good fit for the Green Bay cover 2 defense: he's a run stopper who is below average playing deep cover, which is where he's forced to play in the cover 2. Look for Drew Brees to look to throw in to that deep cover 2 area defended by Manuel, and look for Manuel to give up some big plays. Look for Saints standout rookies Bush or Colston or both to light him up on some deep post/corner routes. Look for Saints standount d-tackle Brian Young (3 sacks last week) to have a huge day against Packers rookie guard Tony Moll and rookie center Jason Spitz. Expect Favre to be flushed from the pocket frequently, leading to sacks by the defensive ends and leading to Favre giving the ball away by throwing on the run. I don't expect this to always be the blowout that the Packers faced in Week One, but I do expect the Saints to have this game in hand a high percentage of the time. As such, i'm recommending moving the line from -2 (-105) to -3 (+122) as is availble on Pinnacle. New Orleans 28, Green Bay 14.
Giants +3 (-123) at Philly
With Westbrook, LB Jeremiah Trotter and CB Lito Sheppard all banged up, this line has not moved enough to compensate for the injuries this week. While I like Philly this year, I think they suffer a letdown at home and either win this by a field goal or lose outright. I expect the Giants superior running game to grind a lot of clock and keep this game a lot closer than expected. Eagles 21, New York Football Giants 20.
Tease of the Week: Chicago -8 + Seattle -7.
These games tease to Chicago -2 and Seattle -1. Chicago has a tremendous amount of value here at -2. Seattle likewise has value crossing the -7 and -3, but not quite as much as Chicago. If you don't like Seattle, you can tease in Baltimore -13 (teases down to -7, or even grab a 6.5 point teaser to get inside 7) to replace. Final scores: Chicago 21-17, Seattle 28-21.
Recap:
Atlanta -4.5 +104 : 5 units to win 5.20 units
Saints -3 +122 : 3 units to win 3.66 units
Giants +3 -123 : 1.23 units to win 1 unit
Teaser: Chicago -2, Seattle -1 : 2.2 units to win 2 unit
posted by Performify at 9:18 AM
6 Comments:
If you're looking for a fourth game, and don't want to play the teaser for some reason, I have the Jets +6 as an almost-worth-one-unit play in my system. They were very close to bumping to a single unit play. I think this game ends up closer than expected, with the Pats taking it by only a field goal.
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
Hi,
2+2 seems to be down and I thought I would timestamp my picks by postin here.
Good luck today.
-ubercuber
Rams/49ers Over 43.5
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 47
NYJ +6
Det +8
Sorry, I messed up the first one. lol.
Atlanta 14-3, WIN. Atlanta missed four field goals, this score looks a lot closer than the game really played out. Vick is looking really sharp and Atlanta has definately been under-rated so far. This low score may allow them to be under-rated a little next week as well.
Saints 34, Packers 27, WIN. Green Bay played a little better than expected but still the Pack delivered a couple key turnovers to ice the game. Saints were up 34-20 but then Green Bay put in a touchdown with about 3:00 left to bring it closer. Analysis on Manuel was correct, Colston lit him for a 45-yard TD in the corner exactly as expected.
Giants 30, Philly 24. WIN. Expected the close game and it delivered, with Philly looking good but the Giants just putting together a great fourth quarter. We were in great shape: Giants down by 3 in the end so we're pushing, Giants drive to tie it and send to OT where Giants win the toss, both teams go back and forth then a great TD toss by E.Manning to ice the game.
Teaser: Chicago an easy win, man did Grossman look great. Didn't need the tease so gave up some EV there, but I still think it had value moving the line across the two key numbers.
3-0 on the week, Win on Game of the Week, Win on Tease of the Week. +11.86 units on the week overall.
Gave up some big equity on the Tease given that both Chicago and Seattle covered outright, but i still feel crossing the 7 and 3 on those games was favorable enough to warrant the tease.
YTD RESULTS: 6-1 on games +12.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units.
1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +14.39 units
You are the F N Man! Keep up the great stuff!
PAY ME!
Congrats on a fantastic week!!
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