Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five (regular edition)
As with last week, I posted an Early Edition of picks this week, recommended two different plays. Unlike last week though, I didn't get a blow from a major injury (SA) which negatively affected the early picks: in fact one line moved as predicted, the other has stayed put all week. So unlike last week, the early grab didn't hurt and actually helped. On to the picks for the week. As always, graduated units, so cut these in half if you're not on this type of system (i.e. 2.5u, 1.5u, .5u for the three plays, 1u on the teaser).
Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)
Chiefs -3 (-125) vs Cardinals 5u (from the early edition)
I had a bunch more written up on the KC game, and blogger lost it, and I'm never going to be able to rewrite it as well, so forgive if this writeup is subpar.
The Cards defense is one of the worst in the leage, giving up 375 yards per game this year and rank second to last in the NFC. The Chiefs' defense is allowing only 239 yards per game, third best in the NFL. Huard has demonstrated an ability to lead games adequately. The Cardinals have been porous on the ground, giving up an average of 144 on the ground each game, and were really exposed by Atlanta last week, giving up over 250 yards rushing to the league's #1 rushing attack. Don't expect quite that much from LJ in this game, but "King Pink" should in fact close in on 200 yards and a couple of scores.
While I do expect the Cards to play much better this week than last, a rookie QB, no matter how polished in college, isn't going to save the Cardinals season. They have too porous an offensive line, especially for a defense as strong as the Chiefs has proven to be. With two top corners and a strong rush d, the Chiefs will force mistakes and will probably add a defensive score this week, or at least a couple big turnovers. Chiefs 35, Cardinals 10. Game of the week, five units. If you're coming in late, go ahead and move the line back down to -3 and pay the extra juice to do so. Drop to a four unit play if you're paying over -135.
Eagles -2.5 (-106) vs Cowboys 3u (from the early edition, adding a unit)
This game obviously had been all over the media all week, with the return of OD, I mean TO to Philly. The TO factor isn't the most important thing to watch here, though. Its the health of the Philly backfield, and defensive backs. First, the backfield: Brian Westbrook did NOT practice on Friday, which makes three straight days this week he didn't practice. he's still facing swelling in his knee. He remains questionable, which means he's 50-50 to play at this point. He will be a gametime decision. If Westbrook does not play, this play loses value, but not a tremendous amount. After all, Correll Buckhalter has 121 yards on 30 carries this year. He pushed his way in to the doghouse last week with two goalline fumbles, but he's a capable second-string back and its not an automatic "game over man, game over" if Westbrook doesn't play. However I may consider a teaser on Dallas to hedge my early position (probably teasing with either the Panthers, Chicago or the Pats) if West is a no-go. I'll re-evaluate that on Saturday and again on Sunday morning when we have the latest news.
In the defensive backfield, the Eagles get a major boost with the return of standout Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. A source close to this blog actually had the opportunity to speak with Lito Sheppard this week, and has confirmed that he's definitely ready to go. This will be his first game back since November 2, 2005, from an ankle injury. Lito is a tall physical corner who will be a big boon to covering TO underneath. With this bump to their banged-up secondary, Philly will be able to blitz more, which always causes problems for the immoble Drew Bledsoe. The last time Bledsoe was under intense pressure most of the game was in a Week 1 loss at Jacksonville, where he threw three interceptions and completed less than 50% percent of his passes.
Last week Dallas rushed for 217 yards. They're not going to find the same running room in the friendly confines of Philly. When the Eagles have the ball, they should find McNabb with plenty of space to throw: Dallas traditionally doesn't do a lot of blitzing from nickle packages, and they're going to have to go to nickle to try to slow down this Eagles aerial attack. Dallas also starts a rookie in their secondary, free safety Pat Watkins from FLorida State. While he's a solid part of Dallas' zone coverage schemes, Watkins isn't quick and isn't a great tackler. Expect to see Reggie Brown - or Stallworth if he plays - going deep against Watkins most of the game. Philly 28, Dallas 17. Two unit play.
Saints -6.5 (-108) vs Buccaneers 1u
Thanks to Chris Simms' spleen exploding, the Bucs are forced to turn over the reigns to rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski. Look for Saints defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs to load up against the run with multiple eight-man fronts. Look for non-standard blitz and stunt packages to further confuse the rookie QB. The Bucs have struggled all season to generate yardage on the ground with RB Cadillac Williams, and its not going to get any better against the Saints. In addition to loading the line putting eight in the box, the Saints have the ## rush defense. While Gradkowski looked like a stud in the preseason, its going to be a whole different world faced with advanced defensive schemes (everyone plays base defensive schemes in the preseason, for the most part) and especially so when the offense is forced to be one-dimensional. The Bucs have already struggled protecting the QB, and with a rookie under center they're going to struggle even worse as he adjusts. And its even worse with RT Kenyatta Walker lost for the season: the Bucs will be starting another rookie, Jeremy Trueblood, who will be forced to defend hot Saints DE Charles Grant. When the Saints have the ball, they should be able to pick apart the underperforming Bucs defense. Expect both Deuce and Bush to have big days against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing 170.0 yards per game. The Bucs attack the gaps up front and force runs to the outside - look for Bush to finally break a big run outside and show off his big-play skills. This is a must-win game for Tampa, but with a rookie QB they're not going to be able to get it done. Saints 21, Bucs 10.
Jets +7 -115 at Jaguars 1u (Bodog) Jacksonville is missing both defensive ends, Marcus Stroud and Marcellus Wiley. Reggie Hayward is still out for the year. That means the Jags will be starting one out of the four defensive linemen they expected to feature when this season started, and should go a long way to explaining why Jacksonville has been getting very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year (and why their defense has been a general disappointment overall). The Jags will start Paul Spicer and Bobby McCray at the ends and John Henderson and Rob Meier at tackles, and they only have rookies as backups if anything happens to these guys.
The Jets are in the bottom of rush defenses in the league, but Jacksonville has managed only 67 yards on the ground in the last six quarters. While they will be able to run against the Jets - after all they are allowing 140.5 yards rushing per game - Jacksonville is still not clicking with their running game. Jacksonville star wide receiver Matt Jones is out for the game, giving them very little depth at wide receiver.
Most people have probably heard how good a season Pennington is having, but here are the numbers: In four games, Pennington has a 102.2 quarterback rating, with a 67% percent completion rate, six touchdowns, only two interceptions and just over a thousand yards passing. He's facing a Jags defense that is surprisingly ranked #23 in the NFL against the pass, having given up an average of 225 yards per game through the air. Pennington isn't necessarily going to tear the Jags apart, but with their holes at defensive line and corresponding inability to regularly apply pressure to opposing QBs, with their shaky defense against the pass so far, the high-powered Jets passing attack should be able to get some work done. The Jets are also going to give RB Leon Washington more touches this week, and he's shown some flashes of brilliance so far. Portis ran for 152 yards against the Jags last week, and while the Jets certainly don't have anyone resembling Portis, they should have some success on the ground to give them balance.
Seven points is going to be a lot in this game, and I think its going to be more than the Jags can handle with their struggles on offense and their many holes at defense. The way the Jets are playing this could easily be a ugly backdoor cover. 24-21 Jags for the Jets cover.
Tease of the Week: Patriots -3, Bears -3 (2 team, 7 point @ -120 @ Mansion)
The Bears and Pats lines are a little high this week, in my opinion. Both of these games have a greater probabilty of being closer than expected. This teaser has a good deal of value. Worth a two-unit play.
Summary of plays:
Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)
Chiefs -3 (-125) vs Cardinals 5u (from the early edition)
I had a bunch more written up on the KC game, and blogger lost it, and I'm never going to be able to rewrite it as well, so forgive if this writeup is subpar.
The Cards defense is one of the worst in the leage, giving up 375 yards per game this year and rank second to last in the NFC. The Chiefs' defense is allowing only 239 yards per game, third best in the NFL. Huard has demonstrated an ability to lead games adequately. The Cardinals have been porous on the ground, giving up an average of 144 on the ground each game, and were really exposed by Atlanta last week, giving up over 250 yards rushing to the league's #1 rushing attack. Don't expect quite that much from LJ in this game, but "King Pink" should in fact close in on 200 yards and a couple of scores.
While I do expect the Cards to play much better this week than last, a rookie QB, no matter how polished in college, isn't going to save the Cardinals season. They have too porous an offensive line, especially for a defense as strong as the Chiefs has proven to be. With two top corners and a strong rush d, the Chiefs will force mistakes and will probably add a defensive score this week, or at least a couple big turnovers. Chiefs 35, Cardinals 10. Game of the week, five units. If you're coming in late, go ahead and move the line back down to -3 and pay the extra juice to do so. Drop to a four unit play if you're paying over -135.
Eagles -2.5 (-106) vs Cowboys 3u (from the early edition, adding a unit)
This game obviously had been all over the media all week, with the return of OD, I mean TO to Philly. The TO factor isn't the most important thing to watch here, though. Its the health of the Philly backfield, and defensive backs. First, the backfield: Brian Westbrook did NOT practice on Friday, which makes three straight days this week he didn't practice. he's still facing swelling in his knee. He remains questionable, which means he's 50-50 to play at this point. He will be a gametime decision. If Westbrook does not play, this play loses value, but not a tremendous amount. After all, Correll Buckhalter has 121 yards on 30 carries this year. He pushed his way in to the doghouse last week with two goalline fumbles, but he's a capable second-string back and its not an automatic "game over man, game over" if Westbrook doesn't play. However I may consider a teaser on Dallas to hedge my early position (probably teasing with either the Panthers, Chicago or the Pats) if West is a no-go. I'll re-evaluate that on Saturday and again on Sunday morning when we have the latest news.
In the defensive backfield, the Eagles get a major boost with the return of standout Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. A source close to this blog actually had the opportunity to speak with Lito Sheppard this week, and has confirmed that he's definitely ready to go. This will be his first game back since November 2, 2005, from an ankle injury. Lito is a tall physical corner who will be a big boon to covering TO underneath. With this bump to their banged-up secondary, Philly will be able to blitz more, which always causes problems for the immoble Drew Bledsoe. The last time Bledsoe was under intense pressure most of the game was in a Week 1 loss at Jacksonville, where he threw three interceptions and completed less than 50% percent of his passes.
Last week Dallas rushed for 217 yards. They're not going to find the same running room in the friendly confines of Philly. When the Eagles have the ball, they should find McNabb with plenty of space to throw: Dallas traditionally doesn't do a lot of blitzing from nickle packages, and they're going to have to go to nickle to try to slow down this Eagles aerial attack. Dallas also starts a rookie in their secondary, free safety Pat Watkins from FLorida State. While he's a solid part of Dallas' zone coverage schemes, Watkins isn't quick and isn't a great tackler. Expect to see Reggie Brown - or Stallworth if he plays - going deep against Watkins most of the game. Philly 28, Dallas 17. Two unit play.
Saints -6.5 (-108) vs Buccaneers 1u
Thanks to Chris Simms' spleen exploding, the Bucs are forced to turn over the reigns to rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski. Look for Saints defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs to load up against the run with multiple eight-man fronts. Look for non-standard blitz and stunt packages to further confuse the rookie QB. The Bucs have struggled all season to generate yardage on the ground with RB Cadillac Williams, and its not going to get any better against the Saints. In addition to loading the line putting eight in the box, the Saints have the ## rush defense. While Gradkowski looked like a stud in the preseason, its going to be a whole different world faced with advanced defensive schemes (everyone plays base defensive schemes in the preseason, for the most part) and especially so when the offense is forced to be one-dimensional. The Bucs have already struggled protecting the QB, and with a rookie under center they're going to struggle even worse as he adjusts. And its even worse with RT Kenyatta Walker lost for the season: the Bucs will be starting another rookie, Jeremy Trueblood, who will be forced to defend hot Saints DE Charles Grant. When the Saints have the ball, they should be able to pick apart the underperforming Bucs defense. Expect both Deuce and Bush to have big days against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing 170.0 yards per game. The Bucs attack the gaps up front and force runs to the outside - look for Bush to finally break a big run outside and show off his big-play skills. This is a must-win game for Tampa, but with a rookie QB they're not going to be able to get it done. Saints 21, Bucs 10.
Jets +7 -115 at Jaguars 1u (Bodog) Jacksonville is missing both defensive ends, Marcus Stroud and Marcellus Wiley. Reggie Hayward is still out for the year. That means the Jags will be starting one out of the four defensive linemen they expected to feature when this season started, and should go a long way to explaining why Jacksonville has been getting very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year (and why their defense has been a general disappointment overall). The Jags will start Paul Spicer and Bobby McCray at the ends and John Henderson and Rob Meier at tackles, and they only have rookies as backups if anything happens to these guys.
The Jets are in the bottom of rush defenses in the league, but Jacksonville has managed only 67 yards on the ground in the last six quarters. While they will be able to run against the Jets - after all they are allowing 140.5 yards rushing per game - Jacksonville is still not clicking with their running game. Jacksonville star wide receiver Matt Jones is out for the game, giving them very little depth at wide receiver.
Most people have probably heard how good a season Pennington is having, but here are the numbers: In four games, Pennington has a 102.2 quarterback rating, with a 67% percent completion rate, six touchdowns, only two interceptions and just over a thousand yards passing. He's facing a Jags defense that is surprisingly ranked #23 in the NFL against the pass, having given up an average of 225 yards per game through the air. Pennington isn't necessarily going to tear the Jags apart, but with their holes at defensive line and corresponding inability to regularly apply pressure to opposing QBs, with their shaky defense against the pass so far, the high-powered Jets passing attack should be able to get some work done. The Jets are also going to give RB Leon Washington more touches this week, and he's shown some flashes of brilliance so far. Portis ran for 152 yards against the Jags last week, and while the Jets certainly don't have anyone resembling Portis, they should have some success on the ground to give them balance.
Seven points is going to be a lot in this game, and I think its going to be more than the Jags can handle with their struggles on offense and their many holes at defense. The way the Jets are playing this could easily be a ugly backdoor cover. 24-21 Jags for the Jets cover.
Tease of the Week: Patriots -3, Bears -3 (2 team, 7 point @ -120 @ Mansion)
The Bears and Pats lines are a little high this week, in my opinion. Both of these games have a greater probabilty of being closer than expected. This teaser has a good deal of value. Worth a two-unit play.
Summary of plays:
posted by Performify at 1:31 PM
4 Comments:
good stuff from your sources! Here's hoping they weren't too drunk when he spoke to Lito!
Adding another play:
Jets +7 -115 at Jaguars 1u (Bodog)
Jacksonville is missing both defensive ends, Marcus Stroud and Marcellus Wiley. Reggie Hayward is still out for the year. That means the Jags will be starting one out of the four defensive linemen they expected to feature when this season started, and should go a long way to explaining why Jacksonville has been getting very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year (and why their defense has been a general disappointment overall). The Jags will start Paul Spicer and Bobby McCray at the ends and John Henderson and Rob Meier at tackles, and they only have rookies as backups if anything happens to these guys.
The Jets are in the bottom of rush defenses in the league, but Jacksonville has managed only 67 yards on the ground in the last six quarters. While they will be able to run against the Jets - after all they are allowing 140.5 yards rushing per game - Jacksonville is still not clicking with their running game. Jacksonville star wide receiver Matt Jones is out for the game, giving them very little depth at wide receiver.
Most people have probably heard how good a season Pennington is having, but here are the numbers: In four games, Pennington has a 102.2 quarterback rating, with a 67% percent completion rate, six touchdowns, only two interceptions and just over a thousand yards passing. He's facing a Jags defense that is surprisingly ranked #23 in the NFL against the pass, having given up an average of 225 yards per game through the air. Pennington isn't necessarily going to tear the Jags apart, but with their holes at defensive line and corresponding inability to regularly apply pressure to opposing QBs, with their shaky defense against the pass so far, the high-powered Jets passing attack should be able to get some work done. The Jets are also going to give RB Leon Washington more touches this week, and he's shown some flashes of brilliance so far. Portis ran for 152 yards against the Jags last week, and while the Jets certainly don't have anyone resembling Portis, they should have some success on the ground to give them balance.
Seven points is going to be a lot in this game, and I think its going to be more than the Jags can handle with their struggles on offense and their many holes at defense. The way the Jets are playing this could easily be a ugly backdoor cover. 24-21 Jags for the Jets cover.
The Bears/Pats lines have moved to -9.5, so the 7-point tease now moves them across the three to -2.5. Great value here.
Results on the day:
Summary of plays:
* Kansas City -3 -125 : 6.25u to win 5u : PUSH +0u
* Philly -2.5 -106 : 3.18u to win 3u : WIN +3u
* New Orleans -6.5 -108 : 1.08u to win 1u : LOSS -1.08u
* Jets +7 -115 : 1.15u to win 1u : LOSS -1.15u
* Tease: New England -3, Chicago -3: 2.4u to win 2u : WIN +2u
This Week: 1-2-1 on picks +0.77 units. 1-0 on Teaser +2 units. Total +2.77 units on the week.
YTD RESULTS: 10-7-2 on posted picks, +8.53 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-2 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 2-1 on Tease of the Week, +0 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +8.53 units
Quick thoughts:
Chiefs game pretty much as expected, except Chiefs turnovers and except Leinart did look a little better than expected with only one INT and a great QB rating otherwise. Other than two big KC turnovers which led to 10 Arizona points this game shouldn't have been this close. Chiefs defense shut down the Arizona offense except for the one big touchdown to Boldin to open the game.
Philly pretty dominant on defense. They're definitely the team to beat in the NFC. Wonder if they'll be down emotionally after this big game. Nice to see Lito Sheppard make an impact with the game winning INT, returned for a 101-yard TD.
Saints game was close, they got the win but couldn't cover.
Jets game was just ugly start to finish. Early turnovers forced their team purely one dimensional and they just had no chance once the Jags could just play the pass 100%.
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