UFC 64 Full Card Predictions
UFC 63 results: 5-2 on bets, -0.36 units. 5-3 on picks.
Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets.
Predictions for this weekend's fight with the current lines from Pinnacle.
Cheik Kongo vs Carmelo Marrero
Cheik Kongo -511
Carmelo Marrero +461
Kongo is 9-2-1 in MMA with first round KO's in UFC 61 and 62. Kongo is being groomed for a shot at the heavyweight title, due to the serious lack of talent in the UFC heavyweight division. Marrero is 5-0 in MMA but being thrown in to the woodchipper here. He's certainly not in Kongo's league. Marrero is a ground-and-pound banger and certainly has a chance here if he can somehow get Kongo down and control him. But Kongo wins this with a first round KO. Worth a half-unit play (to win) even at this price, if you're interested in having action on all the fights.
Keith Jardine vs Mike Nickels
Keith Jardine -476
Mike Nickels +436
TUF3 graduate Mike Nickels faces off against TUF2 graduate Keith Jardine. Jardine's only loss since early 2002 aside from in TUF was a ridiculous decision loss against
Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4 in April of this year. The heavily tatooed Nickels is a solid fighter with good ground skills, and is a bigger fighter at 6'4" to Jardine's 6'2". However, Jardine's striking and leg kicks are going to be enough to bring this home. Nickels certainly can't trade with Jardine on the feet, and Jardine has the ability to stuff the takedown and keep this standing. Jardine will use his effective jab and very effective leg kicks and stuff takedown attemps and put this away in the second round with a TKO from strikes.
Sean Sherk vs Kenny Florian
Sean Sherk -301
Kenny Florian +271
This fight is to claim the newly-reinstated vacant lightweight belt. Sherk is an absolute monster, built like a brickhouse with tremendous strength, tremendous wrestling and grappling, and even very good striking. Sherk holds a very impressive 30-2-1 MMA record. We most recently saw Sherk defeat Nick Diaz by UD at UFC:59. Prior to that Sherk got TKO'd by GSP at UFC:56 and went the distance in a very tough fight with Matt Hughes in UFC:42. Kenny Florian is a BJJ blackbelt and very impressisive grappler. Florian lost to Diego Sanchez in the first round at teh Ultimate Fighter I finale back in April 2005, but since has won over Alex Karalexis at Ultime Fight Night 1, and submitted Kit Cope at the TUF:2 finale and Sam Stout at the TUF:3 finale. Florian has three chances to win this fight: a cut, a very lucky flash knockout, or a submission. Florian does have very good jiu-jitsu skills, but Sherk has never been submitted and never even been close to getting caught in a submission. A cut is certainly always a possiblity, but a flash knockout is very unlikely: Sherk has a monster chin and was able to outbox a very good striker in Nick Diaz. Sherk is by far the best bet on this card, in my opinion. Sherk by first round strikes via ground-and-pound. Worth a four unit play (to win).
Spencer Fisher vs Dan Lauzon
Spencer Fisher -401
Dan Lauzon +361
Fisher is a monster striker fighting out of the Miletich camp, with a 18-2 MMA record. Fisher lost a split decision to Sam Stout at UFC:58 (USA vs Canada) and then KO'd Matt Wiman with a flying knee at UFC:60 (Gracie vs Hughes). Dan Lauzon is only 18 years old, is the younger brother of lightweight Joe Lauzon who just recently pulled out the massive upset over Jens Pulver. Lauzon stepped up when Naoyuki Kotani couldn't get in to the country due to visa issues. Fisher has never been submitted, has never been knocked out, his only two losses come by decisions. I think this is going to be an interesting fight as we'll get our first real look at Lauzon, but I can't imagine the 18-year old will be able to stand up to the impressive Fisher in his UFC debut. Fisher by second round TKO, but the pure unknown factor of Dan Lauzon is always a concern.
Clay Guida vs Justin James
Clay Guida -277
Justin James +257
Undercard fight we probably won't see unless something spectacular happens. Guida is an up-and-coming figher at 24 years old with a 20 - 6 MMA record all in the last thre years. Guida is a very strong wrestler (won the National Junior Collegiate Championship in 2001) and has some decent MMA experience, holding the Strikeforce lightweight Championship at one point and holding three belts in regional (midwest) fighting organizations. Justin James is 11-5 in MMA competition with early loses to Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel, but don't let that record fool you: James is 7-1 in MMA since 2004. He's a very strong submission fighter: all but one of those seven wins since 2004 have been by submission, almost all of them by armbar. Guida has an impressive record, but he's fought five times in 2006 and has lost three of those fight fights, two by submission. I think there's a reasonable chance that the experienced and older James catches Guida in a submission here. James by armbar in the second round.
Rich Franklin vs Anderson Silva
Rich Franklin -194
Anderson Silva +181
I think just about everyone knows who they are and what they've done. Franklin is one of the most intelligent fighters in the UFC, and he'll come in to this fight well prepared with a detailed gameplan on how to secure this victory. Yes, Silva has been impressive in building his 16 - 4 MMA record, he has very strong Muay Thai skills and a very active guard. But Franklin will eke out a decision victory here. Yes, I expect this to go all five rounds. It will be a war, and Franklin will be in danger all the way, but I think he wins pretty handily with a smart gameplan, probably with a lot of takedowns and slow steady pace on the ground. I think this line is well-set and there's not a tremendous value in either side.
Yushin Okami vs Kalib Starnes
Yushin Okami -124
Kalib Starnes +114
Okami is a teammate of Caol Uno and a strong ground and pound fighter. He was last in the UFC on the undercard of UFC:62 (Liddell vs Sobral) where he beat Alan Belcher by UD. Okami is currently the third-ranked middleweight in Pancase. Okami has fought some talent, including Anderson Silva, and a close decision loss to a tough Jake Shields. Starnes, from TUF:3, has an impressive 7-0-1 MMA record, but he hasn't beaten anyone of note except a KO of Jason MacDonald in late 2005. Starnes is outmatched here, and Okami wins this handily. First round TKO for Okami.
Jon Fitch vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Jon Fitch -284
Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264
Fitch was suppsoed to be on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, but has been tearing up the Ultimate Fight Night undercards instead, with wins over Brock Larson (UFN:2), Josh Burkman (UFN:4) and a TKO of Thiago Alves at UFN:5. Fitch fights under American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) and is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling background (wrestled in a solid program at Purdue) with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. Fitch faces yet another tough opponent in Japanese fighter Kuniyoshi Hironaka. Hironaka holds black belts in BJJ and Judo, and is ranked #7 in the world in Shooto. Hironaka has a win (split decision) over Nick Diaz back in 2002 and most recently TKO'd former UFC figher Renato Verissimo at Rumble On The Rock #9 in April of this year. Hironaka was originally scheduled to fight BJ Penn on the Ortiz/Shamrock III card (which would have been an awersome fight) but that got scrapped when Penn stepped in to fight Hughes while GSP was injured. Its tough to argue with Fitch's success in recent fights, but I think this line is too high. Fitch would have to win this fight three times out of four to make his line +EV, and I think the fight is a little closer than that. Going to call Hironaka in the upset with a second-round triangle choke, but if Hironaka can't catch Fitch with a submission look for Fitch to ride this to a decision win otherwise.
Kurt Pellegrino vs Junior Assuncao
Kurt Pellegrino -306
Junior Assuncao +276
"Batman" Pellegrino is 8-3 in MMA after getting derailed by Drew Fickett at UFC:61. Pellegrino makes a return to the octagon four months later to try to avenge that loss. Pellegrino is a strong wrestler with good jiu-jitsu, and trains with Hermes Franca. Assuncao is a capoeira and BJJ fighter. Junior has good kicks from his capoeira training, but he's not going to get a chance to use them. This fight is going to the ground, where Pellegrino has the edge in strength and in BJJ technique. Batman gets the submission, only question is which round. I'll call the second.
Summary of Picks in order of expected value:Sean Sherk -301 : 12u to win 4u
Yushin Okami -124 : 2.48u to win 2u
Kurt Pellegrino -306 : 3.06u to win 1u
Justin James +257 : .5u to win 1.285u
Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264 : .25u to win .66u
Cheik Kongo -511 : 2.55u to win .5u
Rich Franklin -194 : .97u to win .5u
Spencer Fisher -401 : 1u to win .25u
Keith Jardine -476 : 1.19u to win .25u
For what its worth, i think the last four fights (Kongo, Franklin, Fisher, Jardine) have very marginal value, and are all probably worth staying away from unless you're just looking for action across the board.
Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets.
Predictions for this weekend's fight with the current lines from Pinnacle.
Cheik Kongo vs Carmelo Marrero
Cheik Kongo -511
Carmelo Marrero +461
Kongo is 9-2-1 in MMA with first round KO's in UFC 61 and 62. Kongo is being groomed for a shot at the heavyweight title, due to the serious lack of talent in the UFC heavyweight division. Marrero is 5-0 in MMA but being thrown in to the woodchipper here. He's certainly not in Kongo's league. Marrero is a ground-and-pound banger and certainly has a chance here if he can somehow get Kongo down and control him. But Kongo wins this with a first round KO. Worth a half-unit play (to win) even at this price, if you're interested in having action on all the fights.
Keith Jardine vs Mike Nickels
Keith Jardine -476
Mike Nickels +436
TUF3 graduate Mike Nickels faces off against TUF2 graduate Keith Jardine. Jardine's only loss since early 2002 aside from in TUF was a ridiculous decision loss against
Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4 in April of this year. The heavily tatooed Nickels is a solid fighter with good ground skills, and is a bigger fighter at 6'4" to Jardine's 6'2". However, Jardine's striking and leg kicks are going to be enough to bring this home. Nickels certainly can't trade with Jardine on the feet, and Jardine has the ability to stuff the takedown and keep this standing. Jardine will use his effective jab and very effective leg kicks and stuff takedown attemps and put this away in the second round with a TKO from strikes.
Sean Sherk vs Kenny Florian
Sean Sherk -301
Kenny Florian +271
This fight is to claim the newly-reinstated vacant lightweight belt. Sherk is an absolute monster, built like a brickhouse with tremendous strength, tremendous wrestling and grappling, and even very good striking. Sherk holds a very impressive 30-2-1 MMA record. We most recently saw Sherk defeat Nick Diaz by UD at UFC:59. Prior to that Sherk got TKO'd by GSP at UFC:56 and went the distance in a very tough fight with Matt Hughes in UFC:42. Kenny Florian is a BJJ blackbelt and very impressisive grappler. Florian lost to Diego Sanchez in the first round at teh Ultimate Fighter I finale back in April 2005, but since has won over Alex Karalexis at Ultime Fight Night 1, and submitted Kit Cope at the TUF:2 finale and Sam Stout at the TUF:3 finale. Florian has three chances to win this fight: a cut, a very lucky flash knockout, or a submission. Florian does have very good jiu-jitsu skills, but Sherk has never been submitted and never even been close to getting caught in a submission. A cut is certainly always a possiblity, but a flash knockout is very unlikely: Sherk has a monster chin and was able to outbox a very good striker in Nick Diaz. Sherk is by far the best bet on this card, in my opinion. Sherk by first round strikes via ground-and-pound. Worth a four unit play (to win).
Spencer Fisher vs Dan Lauzon
Spencer Fisher -401
Dan Lauzon +361
Fisher is a monster striker fighting out of the Miletich camp, with a 18-2 MMA record. Fisher lost a split decision to Sam Stout at UFC:58 (USA vs Canada) and then KO'd Matt Wiman with a flying knee at UFC:60 (Gracie vs Hughes). Dan Lauzon is only 18 years old, is the younger brother of lightweight Joe Lauzon who just recently pulled out the massive upset over Jens Pulver. Lauzon stepped up when Naoyuki Kotani couldn't get in to the country due to visa issues. Fisher has never been submitted, has never been knocked out, his only two losses come by decisions. I think this is going to be an interesting fight as we'll get our first real look at Lauzon, but I can't imagine the 18-year old will be able to stand up to the impressive Fisher in his UFC debut. Fisher by second round TKO, but the pure unknown factor of Dan Lauzon is always a concern.
Clay Guida vs Justin James
Clay Guida -277
Justin James +257
Undercard fight we probably won't see unless something spectacular happens. Guida is an up-and-coming figher at 24 years old with a 20 - 6 MMA record all in the last thre years. Guida is a very strong wrestler (won the National Junior Collegiate Championship in 2001) and has some decent MMA experience, holding the Strikeforce lightweight Championship at one point and holding three belts in regional (midwest) fighting organizations. Justin James is 11-5 in MMA competition with early loses to Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel, but don't let that record fool you: James is 7-1 in MMA since 2004. He's a very strong submission fighter: all but one of those seven wins since 2004 have been by submission, almost all of them by armbar. Guida has an impressive record, but he's fought five times in 2006 and has lost three of those fight fights, two by submission. I think there's a reasonable chance that the experienced and older James catches Guida in a submission here. James by armbar in the second round.
Rich Franklin vs Anderson Silva
Rich Franklin -194
Anderson Silva +181
I think just about everyone knows who they are and what they've done. Franklin is one of the most intelligent fighters in the UFC, and he'll come in to this fight well prepared with a detailed gameplan on how to secure this victory. Yes, Silva has been impressive in building his 16 - 4 MMA record, he has very strong Muay Thai skills and a very active guard. But Franklin will eke out a decision victory here. Yes, I expect this to go all five rounds. It will be a war, and Franklin will be in danger all the way, but I think he wins pretty handily with a smart gameplan, probably with a lot of takedowns and slow steady pace on the ground. I think this line is well-set and there's not a tremendous value in either side.
Yushin Okami vs Kalib Starnes
Yushin Okami -124
Kalib Starnes +114
Okami is a teammate of Caol Uno and a strong ground and pound fighter. He was last in the UFC on the undercard of UFC:62 (Liddell vs Sobral) where he beat Alan Belcher by UD. Okami is currently the third-ranked middleweight in Pancase. Okami has fought some talent, including Anderson Silva, and a close decision loss to a tough Jake Shields. Starnes, from TUF:3, has an impressive 7-0-1 MMA record, but he hasn't beaten anyone of note except a KO of Jason MacDonald in late 2005. Starnes is outmatched here, and Okami wins this handily. First round TKO for Okami.
Jon Fitch vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Jon Fitch -284
Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264
Fitch was suppsoed to be on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, but has been tearing up the Ultimate Fight Night undercards instead, with wins over Brock Larson (UFN:2), Josh Burkman (UFN:4) and a TKO of Thiago Alves at UFN:5. Fitch fights under American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) and is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling background (wrestled in a solid program at Purdue) with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. Fitch faces yet another tough opponent in Japanese fighter Kuniyoshi Hironaka. Hironaka holds black belts in BJJ and Judo, and is ranked #7 in the world in Shooto. Hironaka has a win (split decision) over Nick Diaz back in 2002 and most recently TKO'd former UFC figher Renato Verissimo at Rumble On The Rock #9 in April of this year. Hironaka was originally scheduled to fight BJ Penn on the Ortiz/Shamrock III card (which would have been an awersome fight) but that got scrapped when Penn stepped in to fight Hughes while GSP was injured. Its tough to argue with Fitch's success in recent fights, but I think this line is too high. Fitch would have to win this fight three times out of four to make his line +EV, and I think the fight is a little closer than that. Going to call Hironaka in the upset with a second-round triangle choke, but if Hironaka can't catch Fitch with a submission look for Fitch to ride this to a decision win otherwise.
Kurt Pellegrino vs Junior Assuncao
Kurt Pellegrino -306
Junior Assuncao +276
"Batman" Pellegrino is 8-3 in MMA after getting derailed by Drew Fickett at UFC:61. Pellegrino makes a return to the octagon four months later to try to avenge that loss. Pellegrino is a strong wrestler with good jiu-jitsu, and trains with Hermes Franca. Assuncao is a capoeira and BJJ fighter. Junior has good kicks from his capoeira training, but he's not going to get a chance to use them. This fight is going to the ground, where Pellegrino has the edge in strength and in BJJ technique. Batman gets the submission, only question is which round. I'll call the second.
Summary of Picks in order of expected value:
For what its worth, i think the last four fights (Kongo, Franklin, Fisher, Jardine) have very marginal value, and are all probably worth staying away from unless you're just looking for action across the board.
posted by Performify at 10:37 AM
2 Comments:
Mike had to pull out, so the fight with Jardine isn't going to happen.
4-4, +2.98 units on the night if you played across the board. I warned that I thought the Franklin and Kongo fights were marginal value and hopefully most stayed away. If you just played the top five as recommended you finished 4-2 and +6.25 units
Quick thoughts:
The underdog value on Justin James was aparent, as he was very close to stopping his fight in the first round with an armbar. Likewise with Hironaka, who almost secured a triangle choke in the first round. Small underdog plays for value, and they came close but just not close enough.
The Kongo result was surprising of course, but the striker just couldn't do anything against the grappler. Surprised to see how weak Kongo was on the ground.
Franklin loss surprising, but entertaining. Most expected that Franklin would be able to score in the clench as the bigger, stronger fighter, but Silva's Muay Thai experience obviously prevailed with some very wicked knees to the body opening up opportunities to go to Franklin's head. Will be fun to see Silva fight here, and to see Rich try to climb back up the long list of contenders...
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